New insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real-time

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題名:	New insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real-time
作者:	詹忠翰;Catalli, Flaminia;Chan, Chung‐Han
貢獻者:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
關鍵詞:	Coulomb friction;Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction;Forecasting;Mathematical models;Real time;Seismic phenomena;Strategy;Stresses;Uncertainty
日期:	2012-02-01
上傳時間:	2026-04-23 11:38:51 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Oxford University Press;Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
摘要:	摘要： SUMMARY The Coulomb model for stress change estimation is considered one of the most powerful physics‐based forecasting tools, even though its calculations are affected by uncertainties due to the large number of a priori assumptions needed. The aim of this paper is to suggest a straightforward and reliable strategy to apply the Coulomb model for real‐time forecasting. This is done by avoiding all dispensable assumptions, thus reducing the corresponding uncertainties. We demonstrate that the depth at which calculations are made is a parameter of utmost importance and apply the Coulomb model to three sequences in different tectonic regimes: Umbria‐Marche (normal), Landers (strike‐slip), and Chi–Chi (thrust). In each case the results confirm that when applying the Coulomb model: (i) the depth of calculation plays a fundamental role; (ii) depth uncertainties are not negligible; (iii) the best forecast at a given location is obtained by selecting the maximum stress change over the whole seismogenic depth range. 出版者： Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 出版日期： 2012-02 出處： Geophysical journal international, 2012-02, Vol.188 (2), p.583-599 資源來源： Alma/SFX Local Collection 版權： 2011 The Authors Geophysical Journal International © 2011 RAS 識別號： ISSN: 0956-540X 識別號： ISSN: 1365-246X 識別號： EISSN: 1365-246X 識別號： DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05276.x
顯示於類別:	[地球科學學系] 期刊論文

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