摘要： Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 M w . The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed M w 7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed M w 7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year. 其他題名： Nat Hazards 出版者： Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands 出版日期： 2015-02-01 出處： Natural hazards (Dordrecht), 2015-02, Vol.75 (3), p.2577-2587 資源來源： Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection 版權： Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 版權： Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 識別號： ISSN: 0921-030X 識別號： EISSN: 1573-0840 識別號： DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1448-1
