Scenario for a short-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in Chiayi, Taiwan

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Title:	Scenario for a short-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in Chiayi, Taiwan
Authors:	詹忠翰;Chan, Chung-Han;Wu, Yih-Min;Cheng, Chin-Tung;Lin, Po-Shen;Wu, Yuan-Chieh
Contributors:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
Keywords:	Earthquake damage;Earthquakes;Evolution;Geological hazards;Ground motion;Hazard assessment;Hazard map;Mathematical models;Meishan earthquake sequence;Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment;Restoration;Seismic activity;Seismic hazard;Seismicity;Sequencing;Stresses;Taiwan
Date:	2013-08-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-23 11:42:46 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Chinese Geoscience Union;Taiwan: 中華民國地球科學學會
Abstract:	摘要： Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction. 出版者： Taiwan: 中華民國地球科學學會出版日期： 2013-08-01 出處： TAO : Terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences, 2013-08, Vol.24 (4II), p.671-683 資源來源： Airiti Library 版權： 2013. This work is licensed under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 識別號： ISSN: 1017-0839 識別號： ISSN: 2223-8964 識別號： ISSN: 2311-7680 識別號： EISSN: 2311-7680 識別號： DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2013.01.22.01(T)
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