Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

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题名:	Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes
作者:	張午龍;Cheong, Siew Ann;Tan, Teck Liang;Chen, Chien-Chih;Chang, Wu-Lung;Liu, Zheng;Chew, Lock Yue;Sloot, Peter M. A.;Johnson, Neil F.
贡献者:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
关键词:	639/705/1042;639/705/1046;704/2151/508;Earthquakes;Humanities and Social Sciences;multidisciplinary;Science;Seismic activity
日期:	2014-01-10
上传时间:	2026-04-23 11:44:34 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Nature Publishing Group;London: Nature Publishing Group UK
摘要:	摘要： Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow. 其他題名： Sci Rep 出版者： London: Nature Publishing Group UK 出版日期： 2014-01-10 出處： Scientific reports, 2014-01, Vol.4 (1), p.3624, Article 3624 資源來源： ProQuest Open Access Content Collection 版權： The Author(s) 2014 版權： Copyright Nature Publishing Group Jan 2014 版權： Copyright © 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved 識別號： ISSN: 2045-2322 識別號： EISSN: 2045-2322 識別號： DOI: 10.1038/srep03624 識別號： PMID: 24406467
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