European Geosciences Union;Katlenburg-Lindau: Copernicus Publications
摘要:
摘要： Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation. 出版者： Katlenburg-Lindau: Copernicus Publications 出版日期： 2013-05-03 出處： Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 2013-05, Vol.13 (5), p.1143-1158 資源來源： DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals (WRLC) 版權： COPYRIGHT 2013 Copernicus GmbH 版權： Copyright Copernicus GmbH 2013 識別號： ISSN: 1684-9981 識別號： ISSN: 1561-8633 識別號： EISSN: 1684-9981 識別號： DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-1143-2013
