Spatial risk assessment of typhoon cumulated rainfall: A case study in Taipei area

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/105899

Title:	Spatial risk assessment of typhoon cumulated rainfall: A case study in Taipei area
Authors:	陳春樹;Lee, Yun-Huan;Yang, Hong-Ding;Chen, Chun-Shu
Contributors:	理學院統計研究所
Keywords:	algorithms;Aquatic Pollution;Bayesian analysis;case studies;Chemistry and Earth Sciences;Computational Intelligence;Computer Science;data collection;disasters;Earth and Environmental Science;Earth Sciences;Environment;floods;Markov chain;Markov chains;Math. Appl. in Environmental Science;Mathematical models;Monte Carlo method;Monte Carlo simulation;Mudflows;Original Paper;Physics;prediction;Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes;Rain;Rainfall;risk;Risk assessment;Statistical methods;Statistics for Engineering;Taiwan;Typhoons;Waste Water Technology;Water Management;Water Pollution Control;Water supply
Date:	2012-05-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-23 13:00:23 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Springer New York;Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag
Abstract:	摘要： Typhoon is one of the most destructive disasters in Taiwan, which usually causes many floods and mudslides and prevents the electrical and water supply. Prior to its arrival, how to accurately forecast the path and rainfall of typhoon are important issues. In the past, a regression-based model was the most applied statistical method to evaluate the associated problems. However, it generally ignored the spatial dependence in the data, resulting in less accurate estimation and prediction, and the importance of particular explanatory variables may not be apparent. Therefore, in this paper we focus on assessing the spatial risk variations regarding the typhoon cumulated rainfall at Taipei with respect to typhoon locations by using the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model combined with the spatial conditional autoregressive model, where the model parameters are estimated by designing a family of stochastic algorithms based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The proposed method is applied to a real data set of Taiwan for illustration. Also, some important explanatory variables regarding the typhoon cumulated rainfall at Taipei are indicated as well. 其他題名： Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 出版者： Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag 出版日期： 2012-05-01 出處： Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 2012-05, Vol.26 (4), p.509-517 資源來源： Springer Nature Link 版權： Springer-Verlag 2011 版權： Springer-Verlag 2012 識別號： ISSN: 1436-3240 識別號： EISSN: 1436-3259 識別號： DOI: 10.1007/s00477-011-0508-2
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Statistics] journal & Dissertation

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	18	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...