Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners

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題名:	Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners
作者:	楊志海;Wang, Chun-Hsuan;Lin, Chun-Hung A.;Yang, Chih-Hai
貢獻者:	管理學院經濟學系
關鍵詞:	Balance of trade;China;China (People's Republic);Error correction models;Exchange rate;Exchange rates;Export-import trade;Foreign exchange rates;Government and politics;J-curve;Panel cointegration;Panel data;Trade balance
日期:	2012-12-01
上傳時間:	2026-04-23 13:08:06 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Elsevier;Elsevier B.V
摘要:	摘要： ► Data used is a panel dataset of China and its eighteen major trading partners over the 2005–2009 period. ► We adopt the methodologies of panel cointegration test, panel FMOLS), and panel ECM to conduct empirical estimations. ► Empirical results support for the J-curve hypothesis between China and its trading partners. ► We find that a real appreciation of RMB has a decreasing long-run effect on China's trade balance in only three trading partners. ► It has an increasing long-run effect in five trading partners. As one of largest exporting countries in the world, China has experienced a large amount of trade surpluses for the past decade. However, a growing criticism has been focused on the manipulation of Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate by the Chinese government. While China implemented the exchange rate reform policy in July 2005, the question, whether its currency is undervalued remains as a debatable issue. Different from previous studies by focusing on individual trading partners, this paper tests the short-run J-Curve hypothesis and long-run trade balance effect of real exchange rate between China and its eighteen major trading partners using a panel dataset over the 2005–2009 period. We adopt the methodologies of panel cointegration test, fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panel (panel FMOLS) and panel error correction model (panel ECM) to investigate the above examination. Our empirical results lend support to the inverted J-curve hypothesis between China and its trading partners. However, we find that a real appreciation of RMB has a decreasing long-run effect on China's trade balance in only three of the eighteen trading partners, while it has an increasing long-run effect in five of the eighteen trading partners. These mixed findings, therefore, lead to the empirical evidence that the real appreciation of RMB has no overall long-run impact on China's trade balance. 出版者： Elsevier B.V 出版日期： 2012-12-01 出處： Japan and the world economy, 2012-12, Vol.24 (4), p.266-273 版權： 2012 Elsevier B.V. 識別號： ISSN: 0922-1425 識別號： EISSN: 1879-2006 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.07.001
顯示於類別:	[經濟學系] 期刊論文

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