| 摘要: | 近年來，桃園地區發生幾次較為嚴重之缺水事件，其主要原因乃颱風過後造成原水濁度過高，而影響淨水場處理能力。本研究為紓緩桃園地區之缺水狀況，將搜集桃園境內可用水源及淨水場操作規則，並利用VENSIM建構桃園地區自來水供需系統動力模式，以研擬出在缺水時期實際可行之應對方案及供水型態。 本研究針對有無預警、輪供機制及硬體設施進行ㄧ系列之模擬分析，結果顯示若自來水公司確實發布預警，則可使南桃園在海棠颱風期間之總缺水戶數減少40~50萬戶，而總缺水率降低11~15%，此外，本研究結果更進一步指出桃園地區淨水場容量已不足，為了防範短期缺水事件發生，以及迎合未來需求，擴建或增設淨水場是迫切需要的。 針對管線末端頻頻缺水之問題，本研究以加入大型淨水儲水池之硬體設備進行分析探討，結果顯示加入大型淨水儲水池可有效地改善末端缺水問題，使南桃園在海棠、馬莎及泰利期間之管線末端總缺水戶數各減少48、33及22萬戶。 本研究將輪供機制分為供一停ㄧ、供二停ㄧ及供三停ㄧ進行模擬與分析，結果顯示因輪供無法增加供水量，因此在改善缺水情況上僅有小幅之影響，其與輪流供水機制之時機較有相關，可透過本研究之模式進行預先模擬，使其在實際運用上更有效益。 In recent years, there were several events of serious water shortage in Taoyuan area. The main reason is the typhoon which made turbidity too high to be treated for municipal water supply, and then caused water treatment plants to be shut down. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for risk assessment in water supply system and to draw up several general strategies on water resource allocation. Firstly, the data of water resources of Taoyuan area and operation rule of water treatment plant were collected and analyzed. Then a system dynamic model, Vensim, was applied to simulate the supply and the demand system structure of tap-water in Taoyuan area. At last, feasible policy was drawn up and water supply pattern in time of short-term water shortage was addressed. This research proceeded simulation and analysis which aims at with forewarning or without forewarning condition. The mechanism of supply and hardware of facility were investigated. The result shows if water company is able to announce forewarning, it can achieve total water shortage households to reduce by 400~500 thousand households and results in total deficit rate to reduce 11~15% in south area of Taoyuan during Haitang typhoon. In addition, the research further points out that the capacity of water treatment plants of Taoyuan area are not sufficient enough to prevent water shortage events to occur, as well as cater the future's demand. It should crave to extend the existing capacity or additionally build new water treatment plant. As for dealing with water shortage problem of terminal area of pipeline, this research proceeds analysis and discussion on the possibility of construct large-scale tanks of pure water in site. The result shows that it can effectively reduces the shortage. Total water shortage households is reduced by 480, 330 and 220 thousand households in terminal area of pipeline of south area of Taoyuan during Haitang, Matsa and Talim typhoon, respectively. Finally, this research studies three scenarios of supply patterns: one day of supply then one day of no supply, two day of supply then one day of no supply, and three day of supply then one day of no supply. The result shows that because conversion of the pattern of supply cannot increase the amount of water supply, so it only has slight influence to water shortage condition. However, it alters the timing of shortage. It is suggested that the manager can simulate in advance by using the proposed model to investigate the efficient operation. |
