從1997年開始，網際網路上的資料傳輸量(Internet traffic)每年呈現倍數成長，隨著dotcom公司興起，預期大量頻寬的爆炸性成長需求促使通訊產業之蓬勃發展，所以無論是dotcom、datacom、或是telecom公司，股價在1999年或2000年上半年間都達到了頂點，投資人瘋狂買進股票，經營者不斷的以購併的手段來擴大自己的版圖，整個通訊產業(communications)呈現一片欣欣向榮的景象。然而在2000年下半年開始，網路股泡沫化後(dotcom crash)，實際的頻寬成長需求亦遠低於預期，過度投資加上經濟不景氣，電信產業也產生史上最大的崩盤現象(The Economist, The Great Telecoms Crash, 2002)，其嚴重程度10倍於網路股泡沫化所帶來之影響，全球銀行業因電信業大崩盤所引發的債務風險(exposure)超過一兆美元。許多電信公司的執行長及高階主管相繼被撤換，有的公司在一夕之間進入破產法保護之列，產業大幅裁員也造成數十萬的電信從業人員失去工作，還有為數眾多的投資大眾因為電信業大崩盤而蒙受巨大的損失。 本研究從全球電信產業裡面，挑選數家具代表性的電信設備供應商(telecom equipment supplier)與電信服務商(telecom operator)，分別從整體產業面之科技創新、市場需求和投機風潮，個別公司面之營運策略與管理應變，廣泛收集各公司所發佈的消息和各項相關資料、報導，予以徹底之整理與分析，並找出此次電信業大崩盤的關鍵因素，希望能提供給企業高階管理者、投資人與學術研究者一個未來思考的方向，以歷史為殷鑑，避免重蹈泡沫覆轍、做出錯誤的投資決策。 Since 1997, Internet traffic had roughly doubled every year. But much of the industry was betting on it doubling every 100 days. The mythical growth rate was then expected to apply to all forms of telecom traffic. The stock prices of telecom firms soared up in 2000, and M&A activities pervaded the whole industry worldwide. However, since the second half of 2000, the Internet bubble crashed and the global economy also came into slowdown, then the great telecom crash happened. The telecom bust is some ten times bigger than the better-known dotcom crash. The rise and fall of telecoms may indeed qualify as the largest bubble in history. Telecom firms have run up total debts of around $1 trillion. In this thesis research, several telecom equipment suppliers and operators were picked up for analysis. From the views of technology innovation, market requirement, speculations, telecom firms’ business strategies and managerial measures, many of the related industry reports, market research reports, business news and company announcements were collected and analyzed to find out the root causes for this telecom bubble.
