| 摘要: | DRAM在整個IT產業乃至於電子產業，扮演著舉足輕重的角色。其所包含的應用領域極為廣泛，從電腦、手機、光碟機、數位相機、印表機一直到數位電視等產品，都有相當吃重的應用。在摩爾定律的影響之下，半導體IC通常只有降價的可能，可是同樣身為半導體族群的DRAM，雖然長期而言價格呈現下滑，然而短期內價格卻有可能起起伏伏。 本研究主要嘗試找出影響DRAM價格起伏的因素，首先是針對價格的部份，有別於過往以年或是季為主的價格走勢分析，本研究以月平均價格為主，並且依照不同的DRAM型態分別對DDR、DDRII與SDRAM進行價格分析，也進一步探討現貨與合約的價格走勢有何不同。另外對可能會影響價格的因素進行分析，包含蒐集了全球DRAM產業每月的供給量、需求量以及供需間的差額，試圖找出影響現貨與合約價格走勢的主要因素。本研究利用「逐步迴歸分析法」來加以驗證。研究結果發現，當資料樣本改用月為單位的時候，DRAM的價格走勢，確實與供給、需求以及供需的差額有高相關性。特別是需求比重仍高度依賴PC產業的DDRII與DDR。 本研究的結論是，需求高度集中於PC產業的DDRII，根據分析的結果，發現兩期之間的價格變動率，與供需間的差額有很明顯的關連。經由分析可以推測出，當期的價格變動百分比與當期的供需差額間所呈現的關係。 DRAM plays a central role in the electronics industry due to its wide spread applications in various products like PC, mobile phone, optical disk drive, digital camera, printer, digital TV, etc. For the past two decades, prices of IC chips are subjected to the inevitable descending trend following the principle of Moore’s Law. However, DRAM differs from general ICs with its severe short-term price volatility due to various reasons. As a result, predicting the price of DRAM chips becomes an important problem in the industry. This study attempts to statistically explain the variability of the DRAM prices through a series of stepwise multiple regression analysis. Multiple data items were collected on a monthly basis. These primarily include DRAM prices (both spot and contract), supply and demand volumes. To make a better prediction, analysis are conducted for various types of DRAM, namely DDR, DDRII and SDRAM. Global DRAM supply/demand were taken into account to quantify the underlying forces behind the price fluctuations. Our study shows a close tie between DRAM price fluctuation with sufficiency, which is defined as the difference between supply and demand, which is reflected in the market as glut or shortage. This association is especially obvious in the cases of DDR and DDR2, which are highly reliance on the PC industry. In addition, results also reveals that the monthly changes in DRAM price is also highly related to the sufficiency construct. Keywords: DRAM, DDR, DDR2, SDRAM, Spot price, contract price, supply, demand, sufficiency stepwise multiple regression analysis |
