| 摘要: | 摘 要 BOT在國際上廣泛發展，以推動時間而言，從1970年代末期英國率先實施以來迄今尚不足40年，由於BOT開發的複雜特性，在進行開發的生命週期各階段，存在許多不同類別的風險。在先期規劃階段針對風險加以評估，將有助於提高BOT推動成功的機率。 本研究探討之主題，即針對國際觀光旅館採取促參方式進行開發，在先期規劃階段進行風險評估。首先蒐集BOO促參案相關風險研究報告，進行風險辨識、問卷設計、問卷調查、定性風險分析、定量風險分析，及改善對策之探討。 研究結果顯示： 定性分析方面－ 問卷調查結果，以AHP分析，其中以政治支持風險（11%）、成本追加風險（5%）最為重要。 定量分析方面－ 以淨現值(NPV)進行敏感度分析；其中以營業收益項目最重要，營業收益金額調整±5%，NPV值±7282萬元，NPV值變化幅度±69.18%；其次為營建成本，營建成本金額調整±5%，NPV值±4605萬元，NPV值變化幅度±43.75%。 依據上述分析結果進行風險矯正預防措施，以達投資利潤最大化目標。 Abstract BOT is well developed in the international arena. In terms of the promotion period, it is less than forty years since the first implementation in the United Kingdom in late 1970. Due to the complexity of the development characteristics of BOT, it exists many different types of risk in the development proceeding stages in the life cycle. To assess the risk in the early planning stage will be helpful to increase the successful rate of promoting BOT. The main topic of this research is to do the risk assessment of BOO for the international tourist hotel in the early planning stage. At first, we gathered the relative research reports of the risk of BOO. Then we identified the risks, designed the questionnaire, surveyed the questionnaire, analyzed the qualitative risks, analyzed the quantitative risks, and discussed the policy of the improvement. The research result shows In qualitative aspects Using AHP to do the risk analysis.the results of surveyed the questionnaire,we find the political support risks (11%)and cost additional risk (5%) gets the biggest proportion. In quantitative aspects After using NPV to do the sensitive analysis, we find the most important project of the income of business,when the income of business be changed into ±5%,NPV values changes into ±72,820,000,a ranges of NPV between ±69.18%. The cost of construction has the second influence,when the cost of construction changes between ±5%,NPV values becomes ±46,050,000, a ranges of NPV between ±43.75%. According to the analysis result, we completed the management of risk to achieve the goal for getting the biggest profit in investment. |
