摘 要 金融商品不斷推陳出新，如何篩選既安全、又有穩定報酬之標的，為本研究之動機。 本研究之目的則在於對投資型保單進行報酬及相關風險分析。以全球人壽「領航投資連結型保險-澳視全球六年期澳幣結構型債券」為研究個案，採數值分析法中較具有彈性的蒙地卡羅模擬法(Monte – Carlo Simulation)，透過matlab程式軟體進行分析。結果發現： 1.不考慮匯率風險時,投資收益均大於零，考慮匯率因素後，投資收益小於零的機率竟高達40.82%，可見匯兌風險不容忽視。 2.扣除保險成本、附加費用等之後，年化報酬率低於無風險利率。 3. 參與率太低，對投資收益率影響有限。依契約內容，參與率30%，除非投資組合成長率達120%以上，才會大於最低保證投資報酬率36%。 期望此計算模型能提供投資人以合理的方式，預估未來投資報酬及風險，並依個人對風險的規避程度選擇適當之商品，以做為低利率時代的理財工具。 Abstract Due to the constantly changes of global financial products, how to select an item with safe and stable revenue is the motivation of this research. The purpose of this research is to analyze the revenue and relative risks of investing insurance. Using TransGlobe Life Insurance Inc.’s insurance policy SN16A as the case study, the data is analyzed through matlab software tool by Monte Carlo Simulation,which is one of the more flexible method in numerical analysis. The results are: 1. When not considering the risks of currency exchange, the investment revenue is greater than zero by average. Afetr considering the exchange rate factors, the percentage of the investment revenue to be less than zero is as high as 40.82%. Thus, risks of currency exchange should not ignored. 2. After deducting the cost of insurance and additional fees, the yield of Yearly revenue is less than risk-free interest rate. 3. The low rate of involvement is limited in its influence on investment rate of return. The contract states that with a 30% of involvement rate,unless the portfolio growth rate reaches above 120%, can it be greater than the 36% of investment rate of return. This research will hopefully become the financial tool in this time of low-rate investment,in order to provide a reasonable way for investors to estimate future ROI and investment risks,and to choose appropriate items according to individual risk tolerance.
