本計畫工作包含統計動力預報模式建置與氣候預報在水資源與水文應用研究兩部分。第一部份計劃重點為根據2005年計畫成果為基礎，應用觀測資料(NCEP再分析資料)與模式結果(氣象局氣候模式預報結果、ROMS為主之北太平洋預報海溫)，分析影響台灣區域季內變化的大尺度過程與海陸面因子，據以改進季內尺度的多變數線性迴歸預報方法，評估氣象局模式在季內尺度的預報能力，建立一個週至月(季內尺度) 的氣候預報系統。預期成果包含：1）季內振盪之觀測與氣象局模式季內尺度預報分析；2）海溫預報；3）季內尺度多變數線性迴歸預報模式的改進與季內尺度的氣候預報系統之建立。第二部份計劃重點為使用氣候局預報產品應用在供水系統與河川流量有關之實例探討。預期成果包括：1）淡水河流域主要水資源供水系統的分析；2）氣候預報應用於大漢溪、三峽河、新店溪的流量分析；3）完成氣候預報應用於台北、板新、石門供水分析。此外，本研究群亦將提供氣象局預報中心長期預報課當年夏(梅雨、颱風)季及冬季預報，協助推動氣象局氣候研究與預報發展及作業相關活動。 The proposed project aims to accomplish two objectives: the development of a statistical and dynamic prediction system for intraseasonal variability (ISV) in East Asia ？HHHV Pacific, and the application of the climate forecast information to water resources and hydrology. The first objective will be accomplished through an analysis of observations (NCEP reanalysis and auxiliary data) and model results (CWB climate model predictions, and predicted SST based on the ROMS) to examine the responsible large-scale processes and surface parameters for intraseasonal variability in Taiwan region. The analysis will be based to improve the mutli-variable autoregressive prediction model, and to assess the skill of the predicted intraseasonal variability by the CWB climate model. The second objective will be accomplished through applications of CWB climate prediction products to improve the accuracy of estimating water demand and stream water supply in selected hydrologic systems, including 1) analysis of water supply system in the Tamsui river basin, 2) streamflow analysis in Da-Han river, San-Hsia river, Hsin-Dian river, 3) analysis of water supply in Taipei, Ban-Hsin, and Shimen. The results can be integrated to develop warning systems of agricultural and hydrology drought for better decision-making in water resources management. In addition, we will provide ISV prediction for the summer (typhoon activities and meiyu development) and winter of 2006. We will also assist the CBW to promote climate research, prediction, and operation activities. The accomplishment of this proposed project is expected to contribute to the capability of CWB？HHH？HHHs climate prediction program. The proposed tasks will also bridge climate and hydrology communities so the climate information will be considered more seriously by governmental agencies and decision makers. 研究期間：9501 ~ 9512
