由應力轉移的研究中發現，大地震間的發生有可能是相關的，他們彼此間互相聯繫傳遞，尤其地震發生時應力的轉移將可能導致其他區域加重應力的聚集而釋放能量，造成另一地震。造成此大地震的原因，除了本身板塊運動的推擠造成應力累積而釋放能量形成地震之外，由另一地震發生後轉移過程的應力亦會加速或降低另一地區產生地震的機率。在計畫第一、二年，我們以九二一地震斷層面上的錯動量分佈，分析其隨不同深度所造成的庫倫應力變化，探討其與各相關深度的餘震在一個月後在嘉義地區發生兩個規模六的以上地震的關係。藉此了解，大型餘震的位置是否可能為可預測的。在第三年的計畫，我們將以921地震的經驗，持續對幾個較大地震做分析，探討地震應力轉移與餘震的活動及規模相關性，評估較大餘震預測的可能性。 The correlations between large earthquakes exhibit in the research of static Coulomb stress transfer. Especially when stress transfers after earthquakes results in other regions stress increase, thus release energy by another earthquake. Despite of the stress increasing from collation of plate motion, the seismicity rate also influenced by Coulomb stress change after a large earthquake. In the first and second year of this plan, we analyzed Coulomb stress changes in different depths by calculating the slip distribution of Chi-Chi earthquake to discuss the relations with aftershocks during the first month after the mainshock. By analyzing the locations of large earthquakes, we can exam the probability. In the third year of this plan, based on the experience of Chi-Chi Earthquake, we will continue to analyze several larger earthquakes. By discussing static Coulomb stress transfer, aftershock seismicity, and relations between magnitude, we can evaluate the possibility of forecasting larger aftershocks. 研究期間：9501 ~ 9512
