| 摘要: | 本研究主要以桃園國際航空城之華航園區BOT (Build興建、Operate營運以及 Transfer轉移)開發專案為例，以Analytic Network Process(ANP分析網路程序) 多準則決策評估法，針對此開發專案全生命週期之前期可行性研究階段，對於專案財務進行準則的評估確立與建立最後的決策評估模式。 BOT之促參模式，一方面能減輕政府財政的負擔外，主要還是結合民間充足的財務、先進的經營管理理念與技術，共同進行區域整合性開發，促進周邊產業發展、提升民眾就業機會與公共利益，以達到民眾、企業、政府三贏的局面，在複雜的評估影響要因裡，最關鍵且具影響性之決策因素即是攸關整體開發專案的財務評估部分，且對於整體專案全生命週期各階段性的成敗影響甚鉅。在專案開發的前期，民間機構除依據採購法、促參法等相關規定進行先期構想書與可行性研究報告之提報，其中所著重之重點即是有關專案財務分析的部分，自整個專案的量體規劃、利率與匯率的變化、通貨膨脹、現金流量的預估、營運回收年期，乃至最後的敏感度分析等準則評估，皆影響最後專案執行的成敗。 ANP多準則決策評估的基本模式有四種，簡單型、回饋型、二階網路模式與複合網路模式，本研究所採用之二階網路程序法正符合民間參與公共建設在專案財務評估方面決策的需求，ANP與AHP(分析層級法)的最大差異性即是在於AHP乃假設各個評估準則皆為獨立性，而ANP在評估準則間與構面間接可設定為內部相依性或具外部相依性，以ANP法進行決策分析所得之結果較符合綜合評估之需求，亦較符合人類之思考模式。依據促參法開發的專案財務評估方面因較具多元化與多需求性，且牽涉到公共利益，故在整體專案開發的規劃與成本、財務的投入亦較具整體性，非獨立僅考量單方面的利益，故本研究參考ANP應用的相關文獻與國內已實行之促參專案相關報告後，決定採用ANP二階網路程序法之四大主要準則架構(利益、機會、成本、風險)進行本研究主要分析方法。 本研究設定案例雖已BOT案為例，不過經研究成果顯示，此分析模式皆可依據其專案屬性與特性運用於其他各類型的開發專案，其涵蓋面廣且較具可靠性，亦可提供其他研究之參考，並期望未來之研究可再進行更深入層級之研究。 This study takes the China Airlines Park BOT (Build, Operate and Transfer) development project at the Taoyuan International Airport as an example and an Analytical Network Process (ANP) is used to assess the multi-criteria decision-making method. Aimed at the feasible initial study stage of the project life cycle, this study conducted an assessment of the criteria for project financing and established a final decision assessment model. To promote participation, the BOT model, in addition to reducing the financial burden on the government, combines adequate civil financial and advanced management concepts and techniques to both conduct and promote regional and peripheral industrial development. It also enhances employment opportunities and public interest to achieve a winning situation for the public, the business sector and the government. Among the complex elements of assessment, the most critical and influential decision factor is the financial assessment that is closely related to the overall development project and has significant impact on the success or failure of each stage of the project life cycle. In the early stages of project development, civil institutions, in addition to presentation of the concept in writing and studying the feasibility report for the initial stage in accordance with the provisions of the Procurement Act, Promotion of Participation Act, etc., also focus on the main financial analysis of the project. From the customized planning of the entire project, the change in the interest and exchange rates, inflation, cash flow forecasts, operating recovery period, up to the final sensitivity analysis and other criteria, all affect the final success or failure of the project. In the ANP multi-criteria decision-making assessment, there are four basic models: simple type, feedback type, second-order network model and complex network model. The second-order network procedural method was used in this study and happened to be in line with the decision making needs for the project’s financial assessment of civil institutions to participate in the public construction. The biggest difference between ANP and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) lies in AHP’s assumption that all assessment criteria are independent, while ANP in the assessment criteria sets the dimensions as having internal or external dependencies. The results of the ANP method used to conduct the decision-making analysis are more in line with the needs of comprehensive assessment and logical thinking. Due to their more diversified and demanding nature, the project financial assessment was developed in accordance with the Promote Participation Act and involved the public interest. Therefore, the overall planning, cost of the project development, and financial investment were more holistic and did not just consider single interests independently. This study refers to the literature on the application of ANP and promotes the participation project-related reports that have been implemented in the country. The four main criteria structure (benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks) of the second-order network procedural method of the ANP was adopted for the study analysis. Although this study used the case of BOT as an example, the results have shown that this analytical model, according to its attributes and characteristics, can be used in other types of development projects. Due to its wide range of coverage and greater reliability, it can also provide reference for other studies, and it is expected to enhance future studies and in-depth research. |
