台灣位於歐亞板塊及菲律賓海板塊間的弧陸碰撞帶上，由於板塊間的碰撞擠壓作用，使得台灣地震活動相當頻繁，在1999年9月21日集集地震後，由於造成重大的損失及傷亡，使得國內各界對於地震預測相關研究產生高度重視，但由於對地震發生機制還未徹底了解，導致地震準確預測之研究困難度極高，因此在進行地震預測研究同時，也試著以地震潛勢發生機率作為未來地震防災規劃參考，並以相關統計方法評估並分析台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率，以此方法得到地震災害潛勢之結果，並利用其結果作為長期地震災害評估所使用。本研究第一年藉由中央氣象局之地震目錄，建立震源分區，並假設地震的發生遵循柏松過程，且對地震目錄去除各主震之餘震，並藉由震源分區，將某特定地區內的地震做統計分析，並考慮地震之靜待期，找出地震再現週期，經由統計分析以得到地震特性參數，用此建立地震機率模型，作為評估台灣地區未來地震發生機率的依據，計算在未來10年至50年內可能發生地震之機率。第二年則針對中央地質調查所的台灣活動斷層建立各斷層系統之機率模型，進而統計未來10年至50年內的錯動機率。本計畫的分析成果，可獲得台灣地震潛勢圖，將可以作為相關單位地震防減災規劃之參考。 Taiwan located on an arc and continent collision zone, which is between the boundary of Eurasian plate and Philippine Sea plate. And the seismicity rate is very high in Taiwan region. Especially, after a disaster earthquake on September 21st, 1999, the earthquake prediction subject became popular. But there were still some difficult problems, due to earthquake occurred mechanism was not clear enough for us. To take it over, calculating the probabilities of potential earthquake turn into an important issue for disaster reduction. So statistic methods were to analyze the probabilities of potential earthquakes for area sources. The results can provide for long-term seismic hazard estimation. In this study, the earthquake catalog from Central Weather Bureau will divide into several source regions. And all the earthquakes will follow the Poisson process was assumed. After removing the aftershock sequence, recurrence periods for each source region will be calculated. And the results can constructed the earthquake occurrence probability model, which including ten to fifty years probability. For fault source, we refer to the active fault parameters investigated by the Central Geological Survey, MOEA, set up the characteristic earthquake probability model, and calculated the probabilities for the potential earthquake of each fault. Finally, the probability map for each region and fault sources in Taiwan can be provided as a reference for disaster reduction project in government organizations. 研究期間：10001 ~ 10012
