| 摘要: | 近年來燃料的漲幅驚人，台電發電使用的燃料，包括燃煤、燃油、天然氣，其國際價格均持續維持高檔，以2011年為例，台電平均售電成本已到達每度2.82元，但平均每度電價才2.6元，售電的成本比電價還高，導致發電愈多，虧損愈大。然而，由於台灣人口成長遲緩，倘若未來國民所得與家庭用電人口未能大幅增加，則用電需求將可能會逐年下降。
本研究主要討論所得、人口與家庭特性對用電量的影響，以台灣各縣市與時間序列資料，建立Panel data固定效果模型。本研究研究期間為2002~2011年，利用家庭人均所得、人口、家庭結構與家庭電器設備作為解釋變數，探討各縣市的電燈年消費電量的影響因素。透過OLS與固定效果統計回歸分析，實證結果顯示:1.整體而言，電力消費隨家庭所得提高而增加，在統計上極為顯著。2.人口數的增加與電力消費呈現正相關，且在統計上極為顯著，其彈性值大於所得增加的效果。3.在控制人口數下，每戶平均人口數增加，在電力消費上呈現規模經濟的效果存在。4.平均每人居住面積增加對電力的消費，亦呈現正向的影響。
In recent years, fuel or alarming, Taipower electricity generation fuels, including coal, oil, natural gas, which have continued to maintain high international prices for 2011, for example, the average cost of power Taipower has reached NT 2.82 per kWh, but the average per degree price was NT 2.6, the sale of electricity is higher than the cost of electricity, resulting in power the more the greater the loss. If the future national income and economic growth failed to significantly increase the demand for electricity will gradually declining.
This study focuses on income, population and family characteristics on the impact of electricity consumption, base on county data and time series data, create Panel data fixed effects model. This research study period was from 2002 to 2011, the use of household per capita income, population, family structure and the family electrical equipment as explanatory variables to explore the household electricity consumption factor. Through OLS and fixed effects regression analysis of empirical results show that: 1. Overall, electricity consumption increased with household income increased, statistically highly significant. 2. The increase in population and electricity consumption are positively correlated and statistically highly significant, and its value is greater than the resulting increase in the elastic effect. 3 In the control population, the average population per household increase in power consumption presents economies of scale exist. 4. Per capita living space increased electricity consumption also showed a positive impact. |
