研究期間：10108~10207;In this three-year proposal, we would like to bring the effort fro Hazard component of Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) by making plan for a scenario modeling of the 1906 Meishan earthquake, the PSHA map of whole Taiwan from exiting active fault mapping of seismic source model, and the compilation and documentation of Taiwan historical damaging earthquakes. In the meanwhile, the exercise will link with The Global Earthquake Model (GEM, http://www.globalquakemodel.org/), which is an international collaborative effort that brings together state-of-the-art science, national, regional and international organizations and individuals aimed at the establishment of uniform and open standards for calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. For the scenario exercise of the 1906 Meishan earthquake will be carried out by the integration and collection of the field investigation of the Meishan earthquake related active faults, and the investigation of the site effect for sub-surface structure. Then, a modeling from 2D and 3D for ground motion simulation will be carried out to a spectra of up to 10Hz or so to have the comparison and estimation of the earthquake risk of Chiayi region from the Meisha fault. For PSHA mapping, the seismic source models will be built up with the estimation of slip rate from the existing trenching data, and a comparison to the GPS modeling. The GPS modeling will be carried on with calibration among data to provide the consistency in data. Furthermore, the update NGA (Next Generation Attenuation) will be provided to give the probability estimation in PGA and PGV. These values yield the evaluation of landslide and liquefaction, and the possible earthquake risk and economy lose analysis. Another important task in TEM is the building up of the open-basis database of Taiwan historical earthquakes. This first three years will give the effort on collection and integration of the data to Taiwan Earthquake Center (TEC).
