| 摘要: | 奢侈稅屆至今年六月已施行滿二年，各界對其影響與成效之看法兩極。雖然政策的實施達到了短期抑制房價的效果，惟市場交易量大幅萎縮，成交價仍緩步攀升，也讓奢侈稅效益與存廢的爭議不斷；因此，本文將奢侈稅設為虛擬變數採用最小平方法模型做迴歸分析，探討奢侈稅課徵對台灣地區整體房價及台北市都會地區的房地產價格的影響，另外，將研究期間分成奢侈稅實施前與實施後二個期間，再透過向量自我迴歸模型中的衝擊反應分析及預測誤差變異數分解結果，去解讀房價與各個經濟變數之間的關係。
本文以信義房屋企研室所公佈的房價指數分別與四個總體經濟變數及四個地區經濟變數進行實證分析，從研究結果歸納出的主要結論如下：(1)迴歸模型分析：奢侈稅對都會地區房價的影響是呈現正向顯著但影響程度很小，政府課徵奢侈稅並没有使台北市房價漲幅減緩。(2)從衝擊反應分析來看：奢侈稅實施前，房價指數對自己本身仍呈現正向反應，其餘經濟變數對房價指數的正負影響反應並不明顯；奢侈稅實施後，都會地區的房價指數在第四期至第六期有呈現負向反應，之後逐步收斂至正常。(3)從預測誤差變異數分解的結果來看：奢侈稅實施前，房價指數對自己本身的預測誤差解釋力仍高達八成多，顯示房價指數短期內不受其他總體經濟變數的影響；奢侈稅實施後，都會地區房價指數對自己本身的預測誤差解釋力在第七期已降為五成，而台北市房貸利率在第七期後對房價指數波動的解釋力已提高至24.45%，可以看出台北市房貸利率對台北市房價指數波動的有較高的解釋能力。; People of all sectors a hold bipolar view of the impact and effectiveness of the luxury tax policy, which has been implemented for two years as of June of this year. Although the implementation of the policy had the short-term effect of restraining housing prices, the market trading volume has declined significantly, and the transaction price is still rising slowly. There have been continuous disputes over the benefits and abolition of the policy. Thus this thesis explores the impact of the luxury tax imposed on the overall housing prices in Taiwan and the real estate prices in Taipei metropolitan area. In this study, the luxury tax was set as a dummy variable, and the model of least squares method was used to conduct regression analysis. Additionally, the study period was divided into two phases, namely pre-implementation and after implementation of the policy. The study interprets the relations between housing prices and various economic variables through the analysis of the impulse response of Vector Autoregressive Model and the results of forecast error variance decomposition.
The thesis has empirically analyzed the housing price index, which is published by the R&D office of Xinyi Fangwu (a real estate company in Taiwan), with four macroeconomic variables and four regional economic variables. The results of the study are summarized as follows: (1) According to the regression analysis, the impact of the luxury tax on housing prices in Taipei metropolitan area was positive and significant but small. The imposition of the luxury tax by the government did not slow down the growth of the housing price in Taipei. (2) According to the impulse response analysis, before the implementation of the luxury tax, the housing price index in itself remained a positive response, and the remaining economic variables had no obvious positive or negative response to the housing price index; after the implementation of the luxury tax, the housing prices index in the metropolitan area had a negative response during the fourth to the sixth phase, then gradually returned to normal. (3) According to the results of forecast error variance decomposition, before the implementation of the luxury tax, the explanatory power of prediction error of the housing price index in itself remained up to above 80%, indicating that in a short-term period, the housing price index is not affected by the other macroeconomic variables; after the implementation of the luxury tax, on the seventh phase, the explanatory power of prediction error on the housing price index in the metropolitan area reduced to 50%, whereas after the seventh phase, the explanatory power of the mortgage interest rates in Taipei on the fluctuations of the housing price index increased to 24.45%, indicating that the mortgage interest rates in Taipei have high explanatory power on the fluctuations of the housing price index. |
