第二檔商品是2007年由Commerzbank AG Frankfurt所發行的商品，包含落入匯率區間獲利以及提前出場條款，本研究發現，雖然購買此檔商品在第四個月提前出場獲利的機率為36.1%，但是利用蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬10萬次後，平均而言投資人會有75%的損失，因此投資人在購買此檔商品前應該要多加留意匯率變動的幅度以及各月份提前出場的機率。 ;This paper studies two structured notes. One is CHB -Dual currency-linked note. Another is Commerzbank AG Frankfurt -Bonus Pivot Target Forward. We calculate the price of structured notes and analyze the sensitivities of the products by Black-Scholes Model and Monte Carlo method.
The first product is CHB -Dual currency-linked note. We use Monte Carlo method to calculate theoretical price and we find that theoretical price is similar with real price. That is to say, this note is a fair contract. Before purchasing note, investors should consider currency denominated monetary and exchange rate trends. What’s more, they should consider the probability of currency which might be converted.
The second product is Commerzbank AG Frankfurt -Bonus Pivot Target Forward. We use Monte Carlo method simulation. This contract of an early termination of the probability of 36.1% in the fourth month. However, when we use Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the price about 100,000 times. On average, investors will lose 75% of the principal amount. Therefore, investors should pay more attention about the magnitude of changes in exchange rates and the probability of early termination in each month.
