| 摘要: | 實務上投資人只能從財務報表中得知各項會計項目的決算總數，卻無法得知經理人執行決策的內容及時間點，或無法得知經理人如何建立其事業模式。投資人若無法瞭解經理人的事業模式，就不能正確解讀事業發展成敗的真正原因。
本研究主要目的在於利用「2015事業模式與決策模擬競賽」產生的決策資料庫，探討勝利組別與失敗組別經營團隊之決策內容及時間點，藉以比較成功事業模式與失敗事業模式的差異。
「2015事業模式與決策模擬競賽」使用依據8十事業模式架構開發完成的「My brand 2014事業模式與決策模擬系統」。系統的品質會影響數位學習者的學習成效，因此，本研究另一個目的在於透過系統資料分析，瞭解「My brand 2014事業模式與決策模擬系統」的參數設定存在哪些缺失，並且針對缺失提出改善建議。
本研究結果發現：第一，成功事業模式適當的現金規劃並穩健開發新產品線；反之失敗事業模式在該產品需求與收入尚未穩定時，即研發其他種類產品，因必須支付額外相關成本，造成入不敷出的情況。第二，面臨財務危機、營運現金餘額短缺之際，成功事業模式適時運用短期借款策略，避免資金周轉不靈；反之失敗事業模式未能善用短期資金調度而發生經營失敗的現象。第三，成功事業模式依據景氣情況適當調整原料採購量，避免成本的浪費；反之失敗事業模式疏於原料及人力成本控制而使成本佔比偏高，甚至造成虧損。第四，成功事業模式靈活運用營運資金，適時採行發放現金股利或是減資策略，提升投資人報酬率；反之失敗事業模式缺乏運用財務工程的能力。
針對系統缺失面向，本研究發現投資報酬率偏高，以及參賽者可以應用長期借款與短期借款取得充裕的資金，在相對低廉的資金成本下創造巨額的經濟附加價值。除此之外，供應商關係管理決策的效果並不顯著。
;In practice, investors can only get business performances and conditions from financial statements, but they cannot neither know the content and timing of management’s decision making, nor understand how professional managers develop Business models. If investors cannot understand the business model of the firm, they cannot truly differentiate the underlying reasons that cause a business to succeed or to fail.
The goal of this study is using decision database from “2015 Business Model and Decision Simulation Game” to explore the decision content and timing between successful and failure business and compare a successful business model to a failure business model.
The system used in “2015 Business Model and Decision Simulation Game” is called “My brand 2014 Business Model and Decision Simulation System” and its structure is based on 8-Cross Business model. The quality of the digital system will influence system users’ learning effectiveness. Therefore, this study also attempts to debug the digital system through the analyses decision data for future improvement.
The conclusions of this study are as follows. First, a successful business model implements cash planning and develops new product lines on a timely basis. Conversely, a failure business model does not develop new products in time, and is forced to pay additional cash outflows and incurs cash deficit. Second, faced with the financial crisis or poor operating performance, a successful business model uses short-term borrowing to avoid cash flow shortage. Conversely, a failure business model lacks of the skills of making good use of short-term cash management to avoid business failure. Third, a successful business model controls raw materials purchases and avoid redundant inventory costs. Conversely, a failure Business model is lack of good control of raw materials and labor costs. Forth, a successful business model utilizes working capital, cash dividend or capital reduction tactics to enhance investors’ return. Conversely, a failure business model lacks the ability to use financial engineering.
Finally, for the system deficiencies, this study finds that players can easily generate high ROIC and use long-term and short-term borrowings at a relatively low cost of capital to create huge economic value added. Besides, the effect of the supplier relationship management decision is not significant. |
