從1990至2003年的地震目錄中，以程式MATLAB挑選出台灣陸板塊及其沿海地帶所有規模M≧4.6之地震，畫出地震弧交叉點，比對之後三年期間交叉點70公里內發生規模M≧5.8大地震之發生狀況，並分析其發生率。結果顯示，地震弧交叉點發生後三年間在附近70公里範圍內規模大於5.8大地震之發生率約為七成至八成，具有一定的參考價值。 地震弧可看作應力集中的指示器，而雙凸型地震弧交叉為一種特殊的地震弧型態。本文特別對於1990年至2003年進行此特殊地震弧交叉型態之探究，從而發現，14年中雙凸型地震弧交叉出現了11年(其中包含3次雙凸型地震弧交叉的交集)，且交叉點附近常伴隨規模較大之強震，顯示此種地震弧交叉型態確實與大地震有一定關聯性。此外，初步定義地震弧交叉有效區為三個以上彼此相距不超過70公里之多個地震弧交叉點。 ;From the earthquake catalog of 1990 to 2003, all the magnitude (M) greater than or equal to 4.6 earthquakes (M≧4.6) in Taiwan and its coastal zones are selected by MATLAB. The selected earthquakes (M≧ 4.6) are used to plot out several Earthquake Arcs and the intersections occurred between the Earthquake Arcs. Afterward, a comparison of the intersections with M≧5.8 earthquakes within 70 km in 3 years are conducted to analyze the large-scale earthquake occurrence rate. The outcome shows that the occurrence rate of M≧5.8 earthquakes within 70 km in 3 years is 70% to 80% approximately. Earthquake Arcs are regarded as the indicators of stress concentration, while the double-convex intersections is a special form of Earthquake Arc. This paper investigate the special Earthquake Arc cross-type from 1990 to 2003, and find out that the double-convex intersections occurred 11 times in 14 years. Around the intersections, it often accompanied by large-scale earthquakes, showing that this type of Earthquake Arcs have a correlation with the large-scale earthquakes. In addition, the initial definition of the Earthquake Arcs Active Area is the area composed with more than three Earthquake Arc intersecting points that are not more than 70 km apart from each other.
