在經濟發展過程中，有些國家以飛快的速度，從低所得國家爬升為高所得國家，但有些國家發展至中所得國家即停滯不前，陷入中所得陷阱。本文以92個中所得國家1990年至2015年的panel data資料，採用panel probit模型及panel ordered probit模型進行估計，實證分析中所得國家能否成功跳脫中所得陷阱的影響因素。實證結果顯示，資本形成、教育及貿易開放程度等傳統經濟成長變數對脫離中所得陷阱存在正向顯著的關聯。創新活動也有助於中所得國家跳脫中所得陷阱。在制度變數方面，對於中所得國家而言，減少貪污現象以及提高民主化可以增加跳脫中所得陷阱的機率。;In the process of economic development, some countries experienced a fast economic growth, enabling them to become high-income countries from low-income countries. However, some countries struggle from low-income countries to middle-income countries and then stagnate, falling into falling into the middle income trap. This thesis aims to investigate the determinants of escaping the middle income trap. Based on a panel dataset of 92 middle income countries for the 1990-2015, we adopt panel probit model and panel ordered probit model to implement empirical estimations. Results show that traditional variables such as capital formation, education, and trade openness are associated with a positive relation with the probability of jumping to high-income countries. Innovation also helps escape the middle income trap. With regard to the institutional factors, both lowering the degree of corruption and raising the degree of democracy increase the probability of avoiding the middle income trap.
