季內震盪（Intra-Seasonal Oscillation，ISO），又稱30~60 天震盪(30~60 day oscillation)或 Madden-Julian Oscillation（MJO），為熱帶對流層大氣最顯著的低頻、行星尺度氣候現象，和 亞洲夏季季風期間豪大雨事件，以及西北太平洋地區颱風生成頻率有密切關係。本計畫擬使 用大氣和海洋再分析資料以及氣候系統模式輸出資料，探討全球暖化對MJO 結構、強度、傳 播速度之影響，並利用濕靜能收支、水氣收支、以及濕穩定度分析等定量診斷法，以了解造 成此變化背後之可能物理(熱力與動力)機制。 ;“Intra-Seasonal Oscillation” (ISO), also known as the “30~60 Day Oscillation” or “Madden-Julian Oscillation” (MJO), is the dominant low-frequency planetary scale variability within the tropical troposphere. The MJO’s phase is closely related to the heavy precipitation events and Typhoon activity during the boreal summer season. In this project, atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, as well as the climate system model projections of future climate, are employed to study changes of MJO’s structure, intensity, and propagation under global warming. The moist static energy and moisture budgets, along with a diagnosis of moist stability, are used to clarify the physical (thermodynamic and dynamic) mechanisms behind such changes.
