| 摘要: | 企業評價為會計與財務學者多所著墨的重要課題，其關鍵在於如何對企業的未來成長進行評估，雖學者多認同分析師報告的資訊價值，並以之作為企業評價之重要憑據，然過往研究尚侷限在分析師對企業的盈餘預測，未能充分運用分析師所提供之資訊。本計畫為創新性研究，企業建置新機器廠房設備的決策，是植基於在其後數年報酬率與可回收性之判讀，故資本支出預測當領先於盈餘及營業收入預測；再者，資本支出預測可協助釐清企業成長的成份來源，盈餘是各項成份的最終合體，若利用分析師提供的多項預測，藉由杜邦方程式拆解，就能明確界定成長的貢獻來源。本研究計畫對資本支出預測做檢測 (1)分析師的資本支出預測是否領先於盈餘預測或營業收入預測? (2)分析師是否納入資本支出預測資訊，而產出其推薦水準值? (3)是否分析師資本支出預測，可解釋分析師基礎評價模式與推薦水準值之偏離? (4)分析師資本支出預測，是否傳遞其對企業未來週轉率的隱含看法? (5)分析師對企業未來週轉率所做的隱含假設，是否反映其能力高低? (6)是否可利用分析師資本支出預測，建構指標衡量資本的邊際產值？ ;This innovative research project aims at security analyst capital expenditure forecasts, exploring the role they play in estimating EPS growth and implementing firm valuation, which is among the most discussed research topics in the fields of accounting and finance. The key to accurately estimate firms value is to estimate the future growth of the company. In spite of the prevalence of using security analyst earnings forecast to estimate firm value, this study posits and plans to demonstrate that analyst capital expenditure forecasts have significant marginal explanatory power to firm values. Specifically, analyst research reports provide a much richer set of measures that serve to reflect which component of the Du Pont Identity the analysts perceive to contributes to firm growth the most. It may be insufficient that researchers or practitioners use exclusively earnings forecasts for valuation purpose.? Moreover, when companies decide to engage themselves in investing activities in the future, they are likely to foresee promising cash inflow streams further deep in the future. Accordingly, analysts’ forecast capital expenditure are likely to lead their forecast earnings or forecast revenue. Centering on analyst capital expenditure forecasts, this study examines (1) whether these forecasts lead the simultaneously issued analyst earnings forecasts and/or revenue forecasts, (2) the extent to which analysts incorporate these forecasts when they make investment recommendations, (3) whether these forecasts help explain the difference between the predicted recommendation derived based upon subtracting the intrinsic firm value estimated by valuation model(s) in prior studies from market price and the recommendation issued by analysts, (4) the extent to which these forecasts reflect analysts’ perceived future asset turnover of the firms, (5) the extent to which the rigidity of these forecasts reflect analysts’ predictability, and (6) the effectiveness of adopting these forecasts to construct measures for firms’ marginal value products (MVPs) of capital. |
