本研究將透過已知的地震知識，考慮現有知識性(epstemic)及隨機性(aleatory)的不確定性，透過 機率模式分析，評估地震潛勢，並進一步瞭解地震風險。希望透過地震危害度及風險的分析，提供相 關資訊給一般民眾、企業及政府決策單位，以便進行風險管理，降低地震對社會及經濟所造成的衝擊。 為了提供「適時」的地震危害度分析，本研究將考慮大地震發生後，應力的轉移，以及重新分配，對 於附近區域地震發生率所造成的長短期變化。在長期時變性地震活動率的研究上，我們將以Brownian Passage Time（簡稱「BPT」）模型進行分析。而在地震發生後，因餘震所造成的短期地震發生率變化， 則考慮速率-狀態摩擦模型(rate-and-state friction model)。除了時變率的發震模式考量外，在斷層震源型 態上，我們將使用三維斷層幾何及震源邏輯樹概念，考量震源的不確定性。此外，台灣海外地震及各 地區場址放大效應將一併考慮於地震災害評估中。本研究也將利用隨機模型建立地震源，以現有的景 況模擬技術模擬地震所引致之強地動場，分析相對的風險及災損分析。期望藉著比較和分析所得到的 結果，探討各個參數的應用及適切性，提供適當的地震危害度分析結果，以利後續相關單位進行地震 風險及衝擊的評估。 ;The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with epstemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty of earthquakes would be assessed in this study. The PSHA map quantifying seismic risk not only provide inhabitants a reference to manage seismic risk, but also public policy for land use planning as well. To provide an adequate hazard analysis, a time-dependent PSHA is considered. The long-term seismic rate variety related to the tectonic stress transfer after an occurrence of earthquake is estimated with Brownian Passage Time processes. The short-term seismic rate change resulted from aftershocks is considered with rate-and-state friction model. In addition to the time-dependent model, the seismic source model such as 3-D fault geometry, and offshore structure, a logic tree of various source models would be utilized. Also the site effect will be considered in the new version of the PSHA map. Apply the hazard map with considering the applicable fragility curves and vulnerability functions, the seismic risk and loss map would be obtained. In additional, the deterministic ground motion prediction is also considered in this study. I will developed stochastic source models and applied a 3-D waveform simulation tools for scenario earthquakes. By assessing and comparing results with various sources, we are going to explore the appropriate seismic hazard analysis to subsequent seismic risk analysis.
