| 摘要: | 本計畫目標課題為 D05：不同規模之地震衝擊模擬與對策。大臺北地區位居我國政治經濟重要地位，人口數超過八百萬，且行政首府重要機關皆座落與此。近年來都市化成長快速、關鍵基礎設施與建築結構老化及高樓化的狀況，鄰近斷層若發生錯動引致大規模災害性地震，對於人命及建築損失遭受巨大衝擊視為必然預期，也進而可能造成整個政府運作及社會經濟產生劇烈變動。如能藉由從地震、地球物理與地質調查所提供之斷層參數，建立斷層震源模型並以幾十年來地震學發展成熟之地震模擬分析方法，可針對多元之特定震源情境進行分析，完整地呈現大臺北區域性地震動分布表現型態，分析成果亦可作為接續提供災害損失境況模擬，以及再進一步由災損景況落實整備、應變、復原等防減災預備及對策建立上。因此，本研究著重依據地震源物理機制、地質地物與地體構造之學研成果，考量多重震源情境參數研擬及地動模擬，並進行探討場址修正驗證可靠度研究，提出合宜作為後續災損評估之重要參考依據。 ;The Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA) is the most important region of politics and economics in Taiwan. In the TMA, it has a population reaching 8 million, and the capital and most of Government agencies are sited. In the recent years, in the TMA, urbanization has been growing up and resulted in the increasing of high-rise buildings. If a nearby fault ruptures and generates a large-magnitude earthquake, it would lead to drastic impact to residents, buildings and infrastructures in the TMA, and operations of Governments in Taiwan. To reduce the impact of seismic hazard, i.e. large-magnitude earthquakes within/nearby the TMA, earthquake-scenario simulation is important. Detailed seismological, geophysical and geological surveys for obtaining fault parameters and making earthquake-source models with different assumptions is a priori and necessary to scenario simulation. Then these earthquake-source models can be used to capture ground motion distribution and uncertainty by performing recent-developed ground motion simulation techniques based on theories, observations, and experience of seismology. The output ground motion parameters can be further used for estimating losses of buildings, casualties, social and financial impacts, etc. The loss-estimation process enables to draw response strategy of arrangement, resilience, recovery, mitigation from seismic hazard. Thus, in this study, we aim to focus on earthquake-source mechanism, geological and geophysical evidences, and ground motion simulation for the TMA. Multiple source-scenarios for a single fault are considered for estimating ground motion distribution and uncertainty. Also, local site effect and reliable correction will also be discussed. Through the rigorous analysis, these results can be applied to loss estimation. |
