臺灣位於西北太平洋颱風活躍區，颱風的強風和豪雨往往對臺灣帶來重大的災害損失。內政部消防署的統計資料顯示：颱風為臺灣最主要的天然災害，歷年累積颱風造成的財物損失超過地震所造成的損失。然而臺灣目前的產物保險制度中僅有火險和地震險，並無風災保險的項目，風災所造成的財物損失完全由受災戶和政府所承擔，有些企業或農民甚至會被一次嚴重的風災所擊垮。若採用風災保險，可分擔政府補貼災民之財務負擔。但評估臺灣各地強風發生機率及相關的風險評估，必須有足夠的颱風風速、風向數據。本研究採用蒙地卡羅模式(Monte Carlo method)模擬颱風路徑、中心氣壓、風速和風向，擴展颱風風速之樣本數。 本研究先利用統計分析美軍聯合警報中心1970~2016年之北太平洋上颱風的生成位置、移動速度、方向角、中心氣壓，找出其與經緯度之關係，再使用颱風中心氣壓差與風速之間的Holland參數化模式及蒙地卡羅模式來模擬侵台颱風之移動路徑、中心氣壓及風速，再使用邊界層流模式來計算近地表之風速、風向。中央山脈地形對颱風中心氣壓的影響則以一個指數衰減函數方式來模擬，模擬之地表風速並與中央氣象局沿海的浮標測站之颱風風速比對，有不錯的結果。再用模式模擬2259場侵台颱風之路徑與風速，再利用統計分析和甘保機率函數，找出臺灣各地強風的發生機率和設計風速。 ;Taiwan is located in the tracks of most Nothwest Pacific typhoons. The strong winds and heavy rains cause severe property damages to Taiwan. Typhoon is the major natural disaster, according to the National Fire Agency, Ministry of Interior. The total property damage caused typhoons is larger than that caused by one earthquake. Hence, the simulation of land-falling typhoon is essential to the risk assessment and the insurance of the wind-related hazards in Taiwan. This study developed a Monte Carlo model to simulate the tracks and wind field of the land-falling typhoons. The Monte Carlo model is based on the historical data of typhoons in Northwesten Pacific Ocean between 1970~2016, collected by the Joint Typhoon Warming Center (JTWC) of US. The wind fields of typhoons were simulated by the parametric model of Holland (1980). The effects of the Central Mountain on the strength of typhoons were modeled by an exponential decay function. The simulated paths and wind speeds compare favorably with the observed results of typhoons collected by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Then the simulated wind speeds of 2259 land-falling typhoons were used to calculate the probability of extreme wind speeds and the design wind speeds in different areas of Taiwan.
