混合羅吉特模型於運具選擇之應用-以中央大學到桃園高鐵站為例;An Empirical Study on Mode Choice from NCU to Taoyuan HSR Station – An Implementation of Mixed Logit Model

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题名:	混合羅吉特模型於運具選擇之應用-以中央大學到桃園高鐵站為例;An Empirical Study on Mode Choice from NCU to Taoyuan HSR Station – An Implementation of Mixed Logit Model
作者:	胡育穎;Hu, Yu-Ying
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	離散選擇模型;混合羅吉特;誤差成份羅吉特;異質性;discrete choice model;mixed logit model;error component logit model;unobserved heterogeneity
日期:	2020-01-17
上传时间:	2020-06-05 16:27:53 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	許多交通政策措施的擬定，取決於影響大眾選擇運具的各項因素，例如旅行時間、車費等等，因此了解影響運具選擇的因素具有相當大的實際意義。本研究以中央大學到桃園高鐵站此路線為研究路線，鑒於桃園高鐵站，為眾多人運輸需求的產生點，而路線車班次少又經常誤點，很難預估到達時間，因此本研究會加入近年來進入台灣市場的Uber為可選擇運具之一，同時也會探討網約計乘車的商業模式和計程車派遣與Uber媒合差異、目前相關法令。採用混合羅吉特模型了解運具間的重疊特性，其調查方法為結合顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好。模型中加入個人的社經背景，顯示出個人異質特性，使各種運具的選擇比例，呈現出的模式結果能夠與真實情況更加貼近。此模型可了解目前中央大學到桃園高鐵站兩地之間運具分配的狀況、旅運者之個人偏好對運具服務品質的感受影響其運具選擇之行為。 ;The effectiveness of numerous transportation policy measures be determined by mode choices, so that understanding the factors affecting these choices is of practical importance. The mode choice between National Central University and Taoyuan High Speed Railway Station is taken for study because Taoyuan High Speed Railway (THSR) is of critical importance for staff of National Central University (NCU) to commute every day or go elsewhere for meetings. At present, only few shuttle buses are scheduled to connect THSR and NCU. Moreover, the scheduled busses are often not dispatched on time and delayed arrival times were commonly observed. Therefore, this study will add Uber, which has entered Taiwan in recent years, as one of the optional transportation. At the same time, it will also explore the business model of online taxi service, the difference between taxi dispatch and Uber platform media (matchmaking), as well as the decree of Uber amended by the Ministry of Transportation and Communications. Mixed Logit Model (ML) was employed to study the mode choice behavior of travelers /passengers. The investigation method of which was combining revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP). The socioeconomic status (SES) of individuals is added to the model, which shows the characteristics of personal heterogeneity, so that the selection ratio of various transportation and the results of the model can be closer to the real situation. This model can understand the current situation of transportation distribution between two places of NCU to THSR and the feeling of respondent′s personal preference to the quality of service of transportation affects the behavior of transportation choice.
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