| 摘要: | 氣候變遷對水資源乃至於整體社會帶來影響，已是不爭的事實。水資源短缺對經濟、政策、飲食安全、科技以及人民的生活品質造成巨大的影響。本研究採用長期水平衡模式，預測哥倫比亞的潘普洛尼塔與蘇利亞流域，在兩種情境底下的河川流量。這兩種情境代表社會經濟、科技、環境、氣候以及溫室氣體排放的可能狀態。本研究採用的情境設定來源於IPCC第五次評估報告（AR5）所使用之「代表濃度路徑」（RCPs）。其根據未來溫室氣體排放、經濟、政策、科技、機構以及人口統計數據的數種組合，評估2100年的輻射強迫力。此兩種情境用以評估2030年與2050年之間的氣候變遷狀況，其中氣候變遷對於河川流量的影響，在溫度方面，將以五種大氣環流模式（GCMs）進行評估，即CCSm4，GFDL-CM3，MIROC5，MPI-ESM-LR 及 MRI-C6CM3，降水方面則是BCC-CSM，CCSm4，GISS E2-H，GISS-E2-R，MPI ESM 以及 MRI-C6CM3六種。
研究結果顯示溫度呈現上升的趨勢。2050年，溫度將在RCP4.5情況下平均上升2.0±0.6°C，RCP8.5的情況下則為2.8±0.7 °C。另一方面，降水的趨勢並不明顯，然而其平均值仍顯示略為減少：在2050年，RCP4.5的情況下將是-0.23±0.5%，而RCP8.5的結果則呈現為-0.48±0.7%。在整個推估期間內，其預計流量整體呈現降低的趨勢。預料在2050年，流域出口的年平均流量將在RCP4.5的情況下-4.04 ± 2.6%；而在RCP8.5的情況下-7.77± 1.5%。本文研究結果可作為相關區域決策者的評估工具，為未來水資源管理的決策提供參考。;It is expected that climate change will have an impact on water resources, hence in society. Water scarcity represents a great impact on the economic system, policy, alimentary safe, technology, and population′s life quality. This study uses the Long-term Water Balance to project the streamflow in the Pamplonita and Zulia watersheds in Colombia under two different scenarios. These two scenarios represent how several factors would unfurl in the future, like socioeconomic, technological, environmental, climate, and greenhouse gas emission conditions. The scenarios used in this project come from the 5th IPCC assessment report (AR5), named Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), radiative forcing by 2100, due to different combinations of greenhouse gas emission, economic, policy, technological, institutional and demographic futures). These scenarios were used to assess climate change for two periods of time between 2030 and 2050. The impact on the streamflow was evaluated with five GCMs for temperature: namely CCSm4, GFDL-CM3, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR and MRI-C6CM3, and six for precipitation: namely BCC-CSM, CCSm4, GISS E2-H, GISS-E2-R, MPI ESM and MRI-C6CM3.
The results indicate an increasing trend for temperature, with an average increase of 2.0±0.6°C under RCP4.5, and 2.8±0.7 °C under RCP8.5 by 2050. On the other hand, precipitation doesn′t present a clear-cut. However, the mean of these presents a slight decrease, -0.23±0.5% under RCP4.5 and -0.48±0.7% under RCP8.5 by 2050. The projected streamflow indicated an overall trend of decreases in all the periods under review. Annual average streamflow has anticipated a decrease of -4.04 ± 2.6% at the outlet of the watershed under RCP4.5 and -7.77± 1.5% under RCP8.5 by 2050. These results serve as a tool for policymakers in the region, as a reference for the future decision on the water resource management in the region. |
