本研究中就2009年至2018年之全球白銀供給與需求基本市場面進行瞭解，並收集2008年1月至2019年12月共144個月資料，資料包含與白銀相關的3項貴金屬：黃金、鉑、鈀，經濟面向則以貿易加權美元指數、工業生產指數、標準普爾500指數、西德州原油與基本金屬：銅共8項變數進行實證研究分析。採用之實證方法為：敘述統計量、相關係數檢視、單根檢定、迴歸分析與Engle-Granger two-step共整合檢定法。其目的為探討白銀價格波動在貴金屬、經濟相關面向與基本金屬的相互影響性。研究結果顯示貴金屬中黃金對白銀價格影響最為顯著，其次為鉑。經濟面向指數部份：貿易美元加權指數、工業生產指數及標準普爾500指數在實證結果後發現，各指數係數正負向符合預期但無顯著影響，顯示經濟面向指數的高低對白銀價格不具顯著的效果；共整合檢定在5%的信賴區間下，拒絕虛無假設顯示共整合關係存在。;In this study, we understand the basic market situation of global silver supply and demand from 2009 to 2018, and collect 144 months′ data from January 2008 to December 2019. The data includes three precious metals related to silver: gold, platinum and palladium. The economic orientation is based on trade weighted dollar index, industrial production index (IPI), standard & Poor′s 500 index(S&P500), West Texas crude oil and base metal: copper. The empirical methods used are descriptive statistics, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, unit root test, regression analysis and Engle Granger two step co integration test. The purpose of this paper is to explore the interaction between silver price fluctuation and base metal in precious metals, economic related aspects. The results show that gold has the most significant effect on silver price, followed by platinum. Economy oriented index part: trade dollar weighted index, industrial production index and standard & Poor′s 500 index show that the positive and negative direction of each index coefficient is in line with the expectation, but has no significant effect, indicating that the level of economic oriented index has no significant effect on silver price; under the 5% confidence interval, co-integration test rejects the null hypothesis, and there is cointegration relationship.
