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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/83902

    Title: 人口高齡化對產業就業份額之影響—以台灣為例
    Authors: 宋美慧;Sung, Mei-Hui
    Contributors: 經濟學系
    Keywords: 高齡化;就業份額;固定效果模型;兩階段最小平方法
    Date: 2020-07-22
    Issue Date: 2020-09-02 17:34:57 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 過去近四十年來,台灣產業就業結構如同其他先進國家一樣,由工業轉變為以服務業為主,但產業的轉變速度在縣市間出現差異。同時,台灣人口以非常快之速度老化,然而縣市間的人口高齡化也出現老化速度不一致的情況。鑒於此,本文主要研究目的為探討人口高齡化對產業就業份額之影響。本文以「人力資源調查資料庫」,計算獲得縣市就業結構的panel資料,以固定效果模型探討高齡化對不同產業的就業份額影響。同時,基於就業份額與高齡化之間存在內生性問題,本研究找尋合適變數作為工具變數組合,再以2SLS模型進行迴歸分析。除了針對三級產業進行分析之外,本文亦將產業細分為9大分類,探討高齡化對就業結構影響。同時,也著重於社會進入人口高齡化之前與之後,產業就業結構之變化,以及不同年齡層勞動參與率變化之影響。
    ;Similar to other advanced countries, employment structure changes substantially over the past four decades in Taiwan, from the industrial to the service sector. At the same time, the speed of population aging increases rapidly in Taiwan. This paper examines the impact of population aging on employment share among industries. Based on the employment share panel data at county’s level, calculated from the “Manpower Utilization Survey”, this study estimates the impact of population aging on employment share by the employment share panel data fixed effect model. Owing to the endogeneity between employment share and population aging, this paper also proposes plausible instrumental variables and uses the two-stage least square estimation for analysis. In addition to the analysis on the changes in the employment share of the three major sectors, this study explores the impact of population aging for each one-digit industry. The structural changes in employment share for counties classified as aging societies, are particularly analyzed.
    The empirical results show that aging is negatively related to the employment shares of the primary sector. Despite of its nonsignificant effect on the secondary sector, population aging decreases Manufacturing employment shares, but increases that of the Construction industry. For the tertiary sector, population aging leads to higher employment shares, in particular, for industries of Business, Finance, Insurance and Real estate, Public Administration, and Social and Personal services. The escalation of population aging intensifies the employment shares reduction in Manufacturing; yet, it increases the employment share of Business and Public Administration, and Social and Personal Services. Moreover, middle- and old-aged workers tend to work in the sector of agriculture when they increases their participation in the labor market.
    Based on the empirical results, this paper suggests that the governmental authority ought to value the changes in the employment structure and the effect of labor supply changes on the changes, especially when the aging process amplifies. Enhancing the rate of labor force participation rate in younger worker and the middle- and old-aged people may mitigate the problem of the rapid shrink in employment in Manufacture, and that of the rapid expansion in Public Administration, Social and Personal Services industries. Furthermore, it is important for the governmental authority to realize that the labor force in agriculture sector might age quickly. This paper thus suggests the governmental authority promoting Agricultural sector’s machinery and equipment investments, so as to improve the working environment and occupational injuries for the middle- and old-aged workers.
    Appears in Collections:[經濟研究所 ] 博碩士論文

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