氣候變遷是指長期氣候特性改變，並可能導致短期氣候變異加劇與極端氣候頻率增加，造成地球上生物生長環境改變，所導致之災害環境。近年來氣候環境變遷影響，導致極端事件發生頻率增加，顯現的不穩定水文氣象條件造成降雨豐枯懸殊日益加劇。氣候、水文及環境的限制，加上未來用水需求之成長，區域供水窘境與日俱增。此外，糧食問題亦為全球之重要議題，如何建立適當之水田灌溉操作管理方法，以確保農業生產以及水資源的有效利用，未來水資源規劃之重要課題。本子計畫以竹桃北地區為研究區域，竹桃北地區之灌溉水，明顯存在著季節性豐枯，因此下半年雨季之降雨量若不如預期，極可能會造成隔年第一期稻作出現缺水情況。本年度針對季節性乾旱來評估與調整竹桃北地區之耕種時程與耕作制度，並利用利用系統動力模式可以良好的呈現系統動態行為隨時間改變之特性，建立田間水平衡之用水模式。以水文收支平衡法為基礎，建立研究區域內田區之控制系統及各田間用水因子間之關聯，並建立區域用水調配模式，作為探討農作期距調整後各種情境之用水情形，本研究亦將藉由水稻之種植期距調整，探討水資源調配之協調機制與具體作業，完成評估灌溉期距調整下水資源之調適策略。 ;Climate change refers to changes in long-term climatic characteristics and may lead to exacerbation of short-term climate variability and extreme climate frequency, resulting in a disastrous environment resulting from changes in the biological growth environment on earth. In recent years, the impact of changes in climate and environment has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme events and the widening disparity in precipitation and rainfall caused by the unstable hydrological and meteorological conditions. Climatic, hydrological and environmental constraints coupled with the growth in water demand in the future are increasing the dilemma of regional water supply. In addition, the issue of food is also an important issue on a global scale. How to establish an appropriate paddy field irrigation operation and management method to ensure the effective use of agricultural production and water resources and an important issue of water resources planning in the future? Irrigated water in the area is obviously seasonally dry. Therefore, if the rainfall in the rainy season in the second half of the year is not as expected, it will most likely cause water shortage in the first phase of rice in the next year. This year, we evaluated and adjusted the cultivation schedule and farming system in the northern part of the Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei area for seasonal drought, and used the system power model to show the characteristics of the dynamic behavior of the system over time and establish a water mode for field water balance. Based on the hydrological balance of payments method, establish the correlation between the control system of the field in the study area and the water use factors in each field, and establish a regional water allocation model to explore the water use situation in various scenarios after the adjustment of the cropping period. Through the adjustment of the planting period of rice, the coordination mechanism and specific operations of water resources allocation will be discussed, and the adjustment strategy for assessing water resources under the adjustment of irrigation period will be completed.
