| 摘要: | 台灣的樓市，尤其是台北，是全世界最難負擔、最複雜的樓市之一。這既讓買家對他們的購買感到不滿意，也疏遠了一部分需要適當住房的人口，但他們的需求無法在傳統的住房市場上得到滿足。本研究利用數據驅動的住房市場細分，使用群啟發演算法(Swarmed-Inspired Projection) 作為框架來進一步了解住房市場動態，並使用多元回歸分析進一步解釋每個房地產特徵的影響。以台北市39個特徵的5000宗房地產交易為例，可以總結出台北市共有5個住宅板塊。住房市場最大的人口統計數據是主要發生在大同區的流動性集群（由 1,019 筆交易組成，平均單價最低），因為它們主要由工作時間長的通勤者組成。使用基於電子表格的計算，可以得出結論，到2040 年台北市需要增加社會住房供應，因為台北市有超過10 萬個未滿足需求，包括顯性需求（無家可歸人口）和明顯需求（有租金問題的家庭）。該住房人口的優先住房特徵改編自住房細分中以流動為導向的集群，即地鐵站、零售服務和以圖書館提供形式出現的機構包容。通過各種方案的保障房投資路徑，可以推斷出需要私人和公共資金的混合才能獲得最具成本效益的保障房項目。資本補助資金與運營和租金補貼相結合，提供了克服租金收入受限和 20 年期間社會住房供應實際成本的答案。這產生了有形資產，這些資產反過來又可以實現關鍵的社會目標：經濟生產力、社會福祉和環境可持續性。;Housing market in Taiwan, especially in Taipei, is among the most unaffordable and complicated in the whole world. It both left buyers feel unsatisfied with their purchase as well as alienating a segment of its population, which is in need of proper housing, but their needs are incapable to be met in the conventional housing market. This research utilizes data-driven housing market segmentation using Swarm-Inspired Projection (SIP) as a framework to further understand housing market dynamics, with the impact of each real estate characteristic is further explained using multiple regression analysis. Using 5,000 real estate transactions with 39 characteristics in Taipei City, it can be concluded that there are 5 housing segments in Taipei City. Among the biggest demographics for housing market is the mobility-oriented cluster that mainly take place in Datong District (consisted of 1,019 transactions with the lowest average unit price) for they are mainly consisted of commuter that has long work hours.
Using spreadsheet-based calculation, it can be concluded that by 2040 social housing provision in Taipei City need to be increased because there are more than 100,000 unmet need in Taipei City which comprises of both manifest need (homeless population) and evident need (households in rental distress). Prioritized housing characteristics for this housing demographic is adapted from the mobility-oriented cluster in the housing segmentation, which are MRT stations, retail services, and institution inclusion which take form as library provision.
Through various scenarios of social housing investment pathways, it can be inferred that a mixture of both private and public funding is required to obtain the most cost-effective social housing project. A capital grant funding, combined with operating and rental subsidy, provides the answer of overcoming constrained rent revenue and the real cost of social housing provision during 20 years timeframe. It produces tangible assets which in turn can deliver key societal objectives: economic productivity, social wellbeing, and environmental sustainability. |
