台灣汽車產業鏈之營收及股價關聯性分析

NCUIR > School of Management at National Central University > Executive Master of Industrial Economics > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/86273

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Title:	台灣汽車產業鏈之營收及股價關聯性分析
Authors:	鄭雅菁;Cheng, Ya-Ching
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
Keywords:	汽車產業;營收;單根檢定;共整合檢定;落後期;上下游
Date:	2021-07-30
Issue Date:	2021-12-07 12:25:19 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	汽車業是俗稱的製造業的火車頭，因其製造過程牽涉許多相關基礎工業，且對零組件的引申需求，可帶動相關製造業的發展。綜觀台灣近15年來的汽車銷量，除了2008年因全世界陷入金融海嘯導致經濟疲弱而銷量驟減外，從2009年開始都是緩慢上升的；且經濟部統計顯示台灣汽車業銷售值占製造業銷售值在3-4%之間，顯示台灣汽車業在製造業中占了一席之地。本研究以汽車業上下游營收是否有關聯性為主要研究方向，研究期間選自2010年至2019年之上市櫃公司季資料。上、下游的公司分類依據證交所開發的「產業價值鏈資訊平台」中的「汽車產業鏈」選取，資料數據來源取自台灣經濟新報社(TEJ)。由於本研究樣本屬於時間序列資料，首先利用單根檢定檢驗每個變數數列是否為恆定資料，再利用共整合檢定確認每條迴歸模型的應變數與自變數是否存在共整合關係，即變數間是否有長期均衡關係，迴歸模型是否具有解釋意義。實證結果發現：一、汽車產業下游廠商的營收和獲利指標確實顯著影響上游營收，且下游前一期營收也會顯著影響上游營收。二、下游當期股價對上游股價是顯著負向影響，下游落後一期股價對上游股價是顯著正向影響，且下游獲利績效不會顯著影響上游股價。從以上結果所得之結論：汽車產業上、下游的營收和獲利指標、獲利指標和股價是具有關聯性的。 ;The automotive industry is commonly referred to as the locomotive of manufacturing because the manufacturing process involves many related basic industries and the extended demand for automotive components can spur the development of those manufacturing. Looking at Taiwan’s automobile sales in the past 15 years, except the sharp decrease in 2008 due to the global financial crisis and the weak economy, it had been rising slowly since 2009. According to the statistics published by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the output value of Taiwan’s automotive industry accounts for 3-4% of the total output of the manufacturing industry. This indicates that Taiwan’s automotive industry has played an important role in the manufacturing industry. The main purpose of this study is to find that whether the upstream and downstream revenues of the automotive industry are related. This research uses the quarterly data collected from the listed companies during the years between 2010 and 2019. The companies were classified according to the automobile industry chain specified by the Industry Value Chain Information Platform developed by the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Since the samples in this study are of time series data, the unit root test has been used to test whether each variable series is stationary or not. Then, the co-integration test has been used to confirm whether there is a co-integration relationship between the dependent and the independent variable of each regression model. In other words, a long-term stationary relationship between variables were examined to confirm whether the regression models are meaningful. The empirical results have the following findings: 1.The revenues and profits indicators of downstream manufacturers in the automotive industry do significantly affect upstream revenues, and the previous period of downstream revenues will also significantly affect upstream revenues. 2.The current downstream stock price has a significant negative impact on the upstream stock price, and the previous period of downstream stock price has a significant positive impact on the upstream stock price, and the downstream financial performance will not significantly affect the upstream stock price. The above results show that the upstream and downstream revenues, profits, and stock prices of the automotive industry are related.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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