無廠半導體公司是指專注在 IC 晶片的電路設計研發，IC 製造委外交由 晶圓代工廠進行後續的投片生產。本次研究的重點是 IC 設計公司 S，這是一 家典型的無晶圓廠半導體公司。公司規模小，因此為了取得更好的產業競爭 優勢，確保穩定的產能供給，會提前一年向晶圓代工廠提供預計投片計劃， 確保產能。而預計投片計劃的來源依據是銷售預測，也因此銷售預測的準確 間接影響供貨及接單。 由於近兩年因為中美貿易戰及新冠肺炎疫情，外部環境成為影響銷售量 的主要因素，導致預測數字與實際狀況落差較大。本研究主要目地在研究個 案公司內銷售預測流程，在現行的預測流程下調整並改善流程，讓銷售預測 數字準確，增加公司爭取銷售訂單及穩定晶圓產能的競爭優勢。 研究是以銷售預測數字增加準確度去探討，可以調整的面向及可以參考 的文獻進行研究。系統主要流程架構在企業資源規劃系統，並整合多個異質 系統。選擇用企業流程改善方式，透過可行性分析確認可行及分析結果是可 以為個案公司帶來更多效益。;A fabless semiconductor company refers to an IC design house without its own production facility. It carries out circuit design of IC chips, and outsources IC manufacturing to third party IC foundries. The focus of this study is IC design house S, which is a typical fabless semiconductor company. Company S is small in scale and low in equity. Therefore, in order to obtain a better industrial competitive advantage and secure stable supplies of IC foundries production capacity, it has to provide the foundries with a product forecasts a year in advance. The production plans are based on sales forecasts. As a result, accuracies of the forecasts indirectly affects its supplies and sales orders. In the past two years, the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic have severely affected the operations of Company S. Since external environmental factors are the determinants of sales, this results in serious forecast inaccuracies, denting revenue and profit of Company S. The main purpose of this study is improve the sales forecasting process, attempting to improve forecast accuracies, in order to improve its competitive advantage in obtaining sales orders and stabilizing wafer production capacity. The foundation of the forecast operations is based on its ERP (enterprise resource planning) system, which integrates various heterogeneous systems, with an artificial intelligence inferencing component. This study proposes improvements to the forecasting process, based on the bottlenecks identified. A feasibility analysis supports that it is feasible and beneficial to the company.
