搜尋週期為三年半時使用SDICAE作強震預測的最佳精度設定;The optimal precision parameter for SDICAE searched in three and a half year period for strong earthquake prediction.

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题名:	搜尋週期為三年半時使用SDICAE作強震預測的最佳精度設定;The optimal precision parameter for SDICAE searched in three and a half year period for strong earthquake prediction.
作者:	范書源;FAN, SHU-YUAN
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
日期:	2021-08-23
上传时间:	2021-12-07 15:07:44 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究是探討李顯智老師所提出最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測效能，並運用MATLAB程式ASICAE進行最強地震圓弧交叉的搜尋。地震資料來源取自臺灣中央氣象局地震資料庫，研究選取範圍為1982年到2016年，東經118.5度至123.5度，北緯21度到25.5度。研究所使用的參數TOLdePar設定為0.09到0.15、TOLRePar設定為0.012到0.016，蒐集由選定的時間點往前42個月的4.99級以上深度70公里內的地震事件所組成的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，用以預測規模大於5.7級且深度70公里內的地震，並且統計出在此條件下預測效果最好的最強地震圓弧雙交叉精度設定，在此數據的基礎上，第五章納入剔除沿弧多於9個事件點和弧端點附近太多事件點的最強地震圓弧雙交叉想法，探討是否能有效提升預測的精準度。;We study the efficiency of the strong earthquake prediction made by using the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) proposed by H.C. Lei. The MATLAB program ASICAE is applied to search for SDICAEs in the earthquake catalog obtained from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The longitudes of the events to form the SDICAEs are ranged from 118.5°E to 123.5°E while the latitudes are ranged from 21°N to 25.5°N. The magnitudes of the events are required to be greater than or equal to 4.99, and the depth of them are smaller them 70 km. We search for the SDICAEs formed by events occurred in 42 months, and use the SDICAEs to predict strong earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 5.7 and depth smaller than 70 km. We try to find out the parameter setting which give us the best efficiency of the strong earthquake prediction. We also try to improve the prediction efficiency by cancelling out some SDICAEs with more than 9 events along the arcs of the SDICAEs, or with too many events near the end points of the arcs.
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