人才是國力的展現，如何清楚且精確掌握產業人力，是政府支持與扶植產業快速且健全發展的重要工作之一。國內對於經常性的產業人力需求與招募的調查與推估，已有固定模式在進行。人力推估若能與政策相互結合，便能夠讓政策的落實符合期待。反之，若支持政策的人力推估差異太大，便會造成國家資源投入的浪費，甚至造成程度不同的後續社會問題。故，如何建構動態性科技人才供給與推估模式及系統，以利科技政策的落實，甚至規劃具有前瞻性的科技政策，是國內科技政策領域必須正式且持續關注的課題。本計畫之主要目的乃係探索目前用於科技人才推估的方法，以提出解決既有國內科技人才推估模式與作法不足之建議，為「建立動態性科技人才需求與供給推估模式及系統」提供基礎資訊。經由分析成果顯示，本計畫認為系統動力學可用於輔助動態性科技人才需求與供給推估模式及系統之建立。 ;Talents are the manifestation of national power. How to successfully estimate talent requirements for the industry is an important task for the government to support and foster the fast and sustainable development of the industry. In Taiwan, regular survey and forecasting for manpower demand and supply of various industries have been performed in some fixed modes. If manpower forecasting can be integrated with government policies, the implementation of policies can meet people’s expectations. Conversely, if the forecasting outcome is far away the requirement of government policies, it will cause a waste of national resources, and even cause subsequently diversified social problems. Therefore, how to develop a dynamic demand and supply forecasting model and system for technical talents to facilitate the implementation of science and technology policies, and even to plan forward-looking science and technology policies, is an important topic that must be formally and continuously paid attention by the domestic science and technology policy field. This study targets on exploring demand and supply forecasting methods for technical talents, and then providing suggestions for dealing with the problems and shortages of existing methods. The outcomes of this study are anticipated to be the basis of developing dynamic demand and supply forecasting model and system for technical talents. This study has proved that the system dynamics can be used to assist the development of dynamic demand and supply forecasting model and system for technical talents.
