| 摘要: | 本研究以2015年至2021年T銀行分行資料，並利用普通最小平方法 (Ordinary Least Squares, OLS) 進行多元迴歸分析，探討分行盈餘之關鍵性決定因素。本研究依自變數之屬性分為分行屬性、資產類、負債類、手續費收入類、綜合類等五類，迴歸式實證結果顯示 ：
一、手續費收入類：保險、理財手續費收入及特店收單金額對盈餘具有顯著正向貢獻，而外匯業務量對盈餘則未有顯著影響。
二、資產類：個人金融放款、企業金融放款對盈餘有正向顯著影響，且個人金融放款的單位貢獻大於企業金融放款，而前期逾放比率則對當期盈餘具有顯著負向影響。
三、負債類：台、外幣活期存款對盈餘具有較大正向貢獻，台幣定期存款具有微幅正向貢獻，而外幣定期存款則無顯著性影響。
本研究的實證結果大致均符合研究假說。令人意外的是外匯業務量對盈餘未有顯著影響。推論此與下列因素有關：第一，人員訓練成本高昂-如外匯人員培訓、操作訓練之成本、外幣現鈔的現金成本及保險成本等。第二，客戶議價能力可能壓縮盈餘；例如大型分行客戶多為上市櫃公司，因其議價能力高，銀行能收取之手續費及匯差有限，在匯兌業務上更有可能為了爭取往來而以成本匯率承作。然而，由於外匯業務是企業金融的延伸，且外匯活期存款仍能為分行盈餘帶來顯著正向影響，為了提供全面性的服務並提升銀行專業性，本研究認為，外匯業務仍應是銀行發展的重點業務之一。
;This study investigates the key determinants of branch earnings by using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to conduct multiple regression analysis on the branch data of Bank T from 2015 to 2021. The independent variables of this study are divided into five categories according to their attributes including branch attribute, assets, liabilities, processing fees, and comprehensive. And the regression empirical results show that:
1. Processing fees: Insurance, wealth management fees and contracted merchant receipts have a significant positive contribution to earnings, while foreign exchange business volumes have no significant impact on earnings.
2. Assets: Personal loans and corporate loans have a significant positive impact on earnings, and the unit contribution of personal loans is greater than that of corporate loans, while the previous Non-Performing Loans Ratio has a significant negative impact on the current earnings.
3. Liabilities: NT dollar and foreign currency demand deposits have a relatively large positive contribution on earnings, NT dollar time deposits have a slight positive contribution, while foreign currency time deposits have no significant impact on earnings.
The empirical results of this study are generally consistent with the research hypothesis. Surprisingly, foreign exchange volumes do not have a significant impact on earnings. It is inferred that this is related to the following factors: First, the high cost of personnel training, such as the cost of foreign exchange personnel training, operation training, cash costs of foreign currency and insurance costs, etc. Second, the bargaining power of customers may compress the surplus. For example, the customers of large branches are mostly listed or OTC companies with high bargaining power. Therefore, the fees and exchange differences that the bank can charge are limited, and the bank is more likely to undertake transactions at the cost exchange rate in order to win business. However, since foreign exchange business is an extension of corporate finance, and foreign demand deposits can still have a significant positive impact on branch earnings. Therefore, foreign exchange business should still be one of the key business for banks to develop in order to provide comprehensive services and enhance banking professionalism. |
