| 摘要: | 台灣PCB產業屬於上下垂直分工的產業，本篇在探討PCB上游設備商-H公司與PCB下游客戶的股價變動關係。2000年左右，台灣PCB大廠為消耗庫存與降低勞動成本的同時，受到中國吸引外資的優惠政策影響，PCB產業開始陸續西進中國。為此，設備商配合客戶需求，開始出口設備至客戶海外工廠，相關交易以美元為主。台灣主要觀察匯率指標是美元，在匯率劇烈波動時，容易影響進出口業者匯兌上的損失，故匯率指數為一項關鍵的變數。
採購經理人指數是顯示對未來經濟好壞的領先指標，本研究將其納為重要解釋變數之一，並探討採購經理人指數的波動對於上游設備商-H公司股價變動的影響。
本篇資料利用2012年9月初起至2022年8月底止PCB上游設備廠商-H公司與下游客戶的股價、月合併營收，及設備商對下游五大客戶每月的出貨數量、匯率及採購經理人指數、等時間序列資料為實證分析的基礎。本硏究採用ADF檢定H公司股價及其他變數是否存一階自我迴歸的現象，並進一步使用複迴歸模型搭配Prais–Winsten估計法調整誤差項一階自我迴歸的問題。迴歸分析的結果顯示在匯率具顯著性但呈現負相關的狀況；採購經理人指數在落後六期有較明顯的顯著性呈現正相關；PCB上游設備商股價與PCB下游客戶股價有顯著性呈現正相關，並具有連動效果。
;Taiwan’s PCB industry belongs to vertical disintegration. In this research, we explore the stock price variation between the PCB upstream equipment manufacturing industry, H company, and downstream clients.
Around 2000s, Taiwan PCB renowned companies tried to sell inventory and reduce labor costs. During this period of time, China gave foreign investors preferential treatment. Famous PCB companies planned to build factories in China due to the allure of preferential policies. For this reason, PCB equipment manufacturing started to export equipment to clients’ overseas factories, and the transaction currency was mainly used in US dollars. The US dollar serves as Taiwan′s primary observational exchange rate indicator, as it has changed dramatically, and it would easily cause a loss of remittances.
The Purchasing Managers′ Index (PMI) is the leading indicator for observing future market conditions. In this research, we set PMI as one of the important explanatory variables and explored the influence of PMI change on H company’s stock price.
In this research, the analysis is based on the below time series data (Sep2012 to Aug2022) : First, PCB upstream equipment manufacturing, H company and its downstream clients’ stock prices, consolidated monthly revenue. Second, the equipment manufacturer’s monthly shipped quantity, exchange rate, and PMI.
We also used the ADF test to check if H company’s stock price and other variables had the condition of a first-order autoregressive model. Additionally, we use the multiple regression analysis model and Prais-Winsten estimation to adjust the error term of the first-order autoregressive problem.
The result of regression analysis shows a significant but negative correlation in the exchange rate. The PMI shows the significance and positive correlation in the time lag of about six months. It shows the linked effect between PCB upstream equipment manufacturing industry and downstream clients’ stock prices. |
