| 摘要: | 疫情的影響不但衝擊人身健康問題，也影響到各國經濟、教育、政治、文化等層面，各個國家為了防範疫情擴大，紛紛實施嚴格的入境管控和旅遊限制，衝擊各國旅遊產業，台灣也無一倖免，國人對於旅遊持保守態度，導致旅遊人數、旅遊支出大幅下滑，故為了探討疫情發生對家庭旅遊支出的影響，利用一般迴歸估計模型分析影響家庭旅遊支出之因素，並以Chow Test評估此次疫情的發生，對於家庭的旅遊支出是否發生結構性轉變；另本研究另一目的為了探討不同時空背景下，國民旅遊卡制度是否仍有效提高旅遊支出，藉由差異分析估計模型，分析公務人員家庭之旅遊支出是否高於非公務人員家庭。
實證結果顯示，疫情發生前後，存在結構性轉變之情形，換言之，疫情的發生並非單一因素影響旅遊支出，國人雖然因為疫情降低國外旅遊支出，但也以國內旅遊為做為替代性支出。另外，以金融保險業家庭為控制組時，公務人員家庭之旅遊支出反而較低，而以教師、軍人家庭為控制組時，公務人員家庭之旅遊支出沒有明顯差異，疫情後，不論控制組為金融保險業家庭或是教師、軍人家庭或是公務人員家庭對於家庭旅遊支出相較於疫情前沒有明顯差異。
;The impact of the pandemic not only affects human health, but also various aspects such as economy, education, politics, and culture in different countries. To prevent the spread of the virus, many countries have implemented strict border controls and travel restrictions, which have impacted the tourism industry worldwide. Taiwan is no exception, as Taiwanese people hold a conservative attitude towards travel, resulting in a significant decrease in both the number of travelers and tourism expenditure. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors affecting family tourism expenditure and evaluate whether the occurrence of the pandemic has caused a structural change in family tourism expenditure, using a general regression estimation model and Chow Test. Another objective of this study is to investigate whether the Taiwan Traveler Card system is still effective in increasing tourism expenditure under different temporal and spatial contexts. Differences-in-differences estimation model will be used to compare tourism expenditure between families of government employees and non-government employees.
The results indicate that there is a structural change in family tourism expenditure before and after the pandemic. In other words, the occurrence of the pandemic is not the only factor affecting tourism expenditure. Although Taiwanese people reduced their expenditure on foreign travel due to the pandemic, they also substituted it with domestic travel. Furthermore, when using families in the financial and insurance industry as the control group, government employee families had lower tourism expenditure. However, when using families of teachers or military personnel as the control group, there was no significant difference in tourism expenditure between both of them. After the pandemic, regardless of the control group being families in the financial and insurance industry, families of teachers or military personnel, or government employee families, there was no significant difference in family tourism expenditure compared to before the pandemic. |
