| 摘要: | 新領照之年輕新手機車騎士具有高事故發生率，為我國長年以來其中一項主要之交通議題。針對此一情形，交通部執行了多項有關於機車考照之改革內容，以期降低該族群之事故發生機會。本研究旨在評估政策之成效，選定民國107年12月延長道路交通安全講習時數之政策作為研究目標，樣本則鎖定政策實施前11個月及政策實施後一年之新手騎士，並區分成18歲、19歲及20歲者，同時挑選出對於新手騎士而言較易涉入之事故情境分別進行探討，觀察經歷政策變革之新手騎士是否呈現較低之涉入機率及頻率。本研究基於交通部公路總局所提供之駕駛人駕籍資料，以及內政部警政署所提供之A1、A2類道路交通事故調查報告表，以羅吉特迴歸模型以及負二項迴歸模型分別對涉入機率及頻率進行實證分析。
研究結果顯示，經歷政策變革之19歲騎士，在領照後第一年於夜間、雨天、濕滑路面及視距不良等情境下之事故涉入機率呈現了顯著減少，分別降低了0.78%、0.5%、0.58%及0.87%，涉入頻率部分亦在前述對象及類型呈現顯著降低，轉化成發生率（IRR）之係數值分別為0.7486、0.5885、0.5979及0.8508。然而，經歷政策變革之18歲騎士，在領照後第二年於雨天、濕滑路面、岔路、無號誌及閃光號誌路口和視距不良路段等情境中，其事故之涉入機率反而呈現顯著之上升，分別增加了0.28%、0.21%、0.54%、0.58%及0.71%，頻率部分亦同，在此年齡及相同事故型態上呈現顯著增加，係數值分別為1.3321、1.1777、1.0843、1.0994及1.1071。綜合以上結果，延長講習時數之政策效果雖然在某些情況下呈現顯著，然而這種影響並非在所有年齡層及事故類型中均存在，表示此一政策之涵蓋面相尚有待提升之處。於講習課後之測驗加入及格制以及更多案例探討，或許將使新手騎士更有效地吸收所學之內容。;The high rate of accidents among young novice motorcyclists in Taiwan has long been a major traffic issue. In response, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) implemented numerous reforms in motorcycle licensing, such as extending road traffic safety training hours in December 2018 to lower accident rates in this group. This study aims to assess the impact of these policies on novice motorcyclists aged 18 to 20, focusing on the 11 months before and one year after its implementation, and identifying scenarios where they are more prone to accidents. This research utilizes driver registration data from the Highway Bureau, MOTC and class A1, A2 road traffic accident reports from the National Police Agency. Logistic and negative binomial regression models were applied to analyze accident involvement probabilities and frequencies.
Results indicate a significant decrease in accident involvement for 19-year-old riders in their first year of licensing under night-time, rain, slippery roads, and poor visibility conditions, with reductions of 0.78%, 0.5%, 0.58%, and 0.87%, respectively, and corresponding IRRs of 0.7486, 0.5885, 0.5979, and 0.8508. Conversely, 18-year-old riders in their second year of licensing showed increased accident probabilities under a broader range of conditions, including rain, slippery roads, intersections without signals, flashing signal intersections, and poor visibility, with increases of 0.28%, 0.21%, 0.54%, 0.58%, and 0.71%, and corresponding IRRs of 1.3321, 1.1777, 1.0843, 1.0994, and 1.1071. In sum, while extending training hours can pose significant effects in some cases, its impact is non-uniform across all age groups and types of accidents, thus calling for broadening this policy with the introduction of a pass-fail grading system and more case studies to help facilitate the effective learning of novice riders. |
