利用二十五史研究探討西元107-1825年期間極光、 極端天氣災害、瘟疫對太陽活動之響應;Using Chinese official historical records to study responses of auroras, severe weather disasters, and epidemics to solar activities from 107 to 1825 Common Era

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題名:	利用二十五史研究探討西元107-1825年期間極光、極端天氣災害、瘟疫對太陽活動之響應;Using Chinese official historical records to study responses of auroras, severe weather disasters, and epidemics to solar activities from 107 to 1825 Common Era
作者:	李柏翰;Lee, Po-Han
貢獻者:	太空科學與工程學系
關鍵詞:	太陽活動;極光;極端天氣災害;瘟疫;Solar activities;Aurora;Severe weather disaster;Epidemic
日期:	2023-12-25
上傳時間:	2024-03-05 16:28:50 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究目的為探討二十五史紀錄中不同季節和地理位置之極光、極端天氣災害與瘟疫對太陽活動的響應。自西元前91年司馬遷完成史記後，二十五史提供連續且完整的觀測紀錄，內容包含特殊天象 (如太陽黑子與極光等)、極端天氣災害 (如氣溫與降水異常、乾旱、洪水等) 與瘟疫等。這些正史資料是為研究近兩千年來太空天氣與太空氣候對自然環境與民生影響的最佳資料庫。將史書原文中描述特殊天象、極端天氣和自然災害的文字轉換為可用於統計研究的數位資料，包括發生時間和地點等詳細資訊，總計約3000筆記錄。依據太陽黑子和冰芯、年輪等紀錄反演太陽活動強度，將西元107-1825年區分為9個低太陽活動時期與8個高太陽活動時期。計算各類事件紀錄年份於各個太陽活動時期所占比例，並藉由統計信賴區間探討高低兩太陽活動期間發生年比例差異。季節變化：計算各類紀錄於四季所占比例，並以全年標準差作為統計檢定門檻，進而比較高低太陽活動於四季之影響。地理位置變化：以秦嶺-淮河為氣候分界線，分為北方省分與南方省分；以海陸地區，分為內陸省分與臨海省分，計算各區域於高低太陽活動期間發生年比例差異，並比較太陽活動對地理位置之效應。統計研究發現整體類極光現象較常發生在高太陽活動時期，其中以紅色類極光最為顯著。其出現時間、顏色與觀測地點緯度均符合現今之中低緯度極光特性，因而可推測史書中所記載的紅色類極光是為中低緯度極光；白色類極光較常發生在高太陽活動時期，但其結果並不通過統計顯著性，推測此一類極光可能混淆了大氣光學現象 (日暈、月暈等) 或中高緯度夜光雲等；藍色的類極光現象則較常出現在低太陽活動時期，此類紀錄可能與實際極光發生無關。研究結果顯示極端天氣災害較常發生在低太陽活動時期，其中異常多雨、異常低溫與洪水均於此時期明顯增加；反之，乾旱、異常高溫則大多出現在高太陽活動時期。整體而言，各個季節中極端天氣災害頻繁發生在低太陽活動時期。地理位置以秦嶺-淮河作為氣候分界線，北方省分顯著於低太陽活動時期出現極端天氣災害。低太陽活動時期有更多瘟疫紀錄，且以夏季、北方省分最為顯著。卡方檢定結果顯示，瘟疫的出現與異常氣溫和降水災害之間存在時間差，氣溫異常災害發生後的兩年和降水異常災害的同一年發生最多瘟疫，說明極端天氣災害可能為太陽活動與瘟疫之中介因子。本研究結果證實，史書記錄可用來詳細量化探討太陽活動對氣候、環境和人類生活影響。 ;Historical records truthfully document human life and the environment associated with climate change. Official historical records of China have been quantified to examine auroras, severe weather disasters, and epidemics in four seasons that are possibly linked to sunspots or solar activities during 107-1825 CE (Common Era). In total, there are approximately 3,000 records. Based on the inverted solar activity intensity from sunspot records, ice cores, and tree rings, the years 107-1825 CE are divided into 9 periods of low solar activity (LSA) and 8 periods of high solar activity (HSA). Proportions of historical records in each period are calculated to study their responses to solar activities. Statistical studies of confidence interval are further utilized to find the significance of true differences between periods of high and low solar activity. Statistical results show that the red aurora-like descriptions which significantly appear during high solar activity periods could be related to nowadays middle/low latitude auroras. The white aurora-like descriptions which tend to occur in summer and during high solar activity periods could be contaminated by noctilucent clouds or other atmospheric optical events. Blue aurora-like descriptions which frequently occur during low solar activity periods might be irrelevant to auroras. On the other hand, disasters of extremely cold weather, irregular precipitation, and floods on inland river basins occur particularly during LSA periods. In contrast, disasters of extremely hot weather and floods on coastal river basins tend to occur more frequently in HSA periods. All the severe weather disasters occur significantly in Northern China during LSA periods, which suggests that the climate boundary of the Qinling–Huaihe Line at about 33°N plays an important role. It has been found that there is a time difference between the occurrence of epidemics and severe weather disasters. Most epidemics occurred two years after the occurrence of anomalous temperature disasters and the same year of irregular precipitation disasters, indicating that extreme weather disasters may be the mediator between solar activities and epidemics. The results show that historical records can be used to quantitatively explore the impact of solar activities on climate, environment, and human life in detail.
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