地動預估式是用來評估地動值隨距離衰減的公式，為地震危害度分析中重要的一環。藉由地動預估式可估算場址可能受到的地動值大小，進而作為工程設計上及防災上的考量。 台灣位於歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊的交接地帶上，兩板塊的交互作用在台灣外海形成兩個隱沒帶構造，分別是位於東北部外海的琉球隱沒帶和西南部外海的馬尼拉隱沒帶。不同的震源類型其震波特性與衰減模式不盡相同，過去針對台灣隱沒帶地震所建立的地動預估式是以東北部的地震資料來建立，在進行地震危害度分析時，兩個隱沒帶地震皆採用相同的地動預估式，但南部隱沒帶地震與東北部隱沒帶地震的衰減特性可能有所不同，且近幾年來南部隱沒帶地震的資料也較足夠，故本研究針對南部隱沒帶地震建立地動預估式。 本研究以臺灣強地動觀測網1991年至2020年的資料，進行基線校正與濾波並計算反應譜，透過迴歸分析建立台灣西南部隱沒帶地動預估式，供地震危害度分析應用。 ;Ground-Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) serves a crucial role in estimating earthquake ground motion, particularly in seismic hazard analysis. Utilizing a GMPE allows us to assess potential ground motion at a specific site of interest and apply this information to engineering design and hazard mitigation purposes. Taiwan occupies a pivotal position at the convergence boundary of the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate. The interaction between these plates has created two distinct subduction zones: the Ryukyu subduction zone in northeastern Taiwan and the Manila subduction zone in the southern region. Existing GMPEs for subduction-zone earthquakes in Taiwan mainly come from earthquake data in northeastern Taiwan. However, the attenuation characteristics of earthquakes in the southern subduction zone may be different from those in the northeastern subduction zone. Also, as more earthquake data becomes available, there emerges a need to establish a GMPE specifically tailored for subduction-zone earthquakes occurring in southern Taiwan. In this study, we utilized strong motion data spanning from 1991 to 2020, recorded by TSMIP. This data has been carefully processed, including baseline correction, filtering, and the calculation of response spectra for furthere use. Leveraging nonlinear regression techniques, we endeavored to construct a set of dedicated GMPEs intended for the earthquakes in the southern subduction zone of Taiwan.
