| 摘要: | 美中貿易戰始於2018年，川普政府以中國的不公平貿易行為為由，根據《1974年貿易法》第301條對中國展開調查並加徵關稅，最終形成了全面性的貿易衝突。拜登政府時期，美中衝突從關稅戰轉變為出口管制，特別針對半導體和高科技產業。美國的技術制裁對中國的影響深遠，尤其是在半導體進口方面。臺灣作為全球半導體供應鏈中的重要國家，也因此受到影響。
本研究旨在探討美國限制2020年9月台積電出口先進製程晶片給華為的截止期限，以及2022年10月全面實施對中國企業的出口管制政策分別對臺灣半導體出口至中國的影響，以及中國半導體進口結構的變化。研究顯示，美中貿易戰和技術制裁不僅對雙邊貿易有重大影響，還通過全球價值鏈影響到其他國家。臺灣與南韓作為中國主要的半導體進口國，其貿易動態亦顯示了美中貿易政策的外溢效應。
從2014年起，臺灣一直是中國最大半導體進口國，美中貿易戰期間，臺灣的進口比重逐漸上升。研究數據顯示，臺灣的半導體出口額在2019年第一季後持續成長，但自2022年第四季起，出口額呈現下滑趨勢，可能與美國對中國企業的大規模出口管制有關。此外，美國的出口管制政策對全球半導體供應鏈脫鈎的風險有所揭示，促使各國重新評估其供應鏈策略。
本研究使用經濟部國際貿易署和聯合國貿易資料庫的數據進行分析，結果表明，美國的出口管制政策對臺灣的半導體出口和中國的進口結構均產生了顯著影響，反映了全球經貿環境中的政策互動和依賴性變化。這些發現有助於理解美中科技戰對臺灣與中國貿易的具體影響，並為未來政策制定提供依據。;The US-China trade war began in 2018 when the Trump administration, citing unfair trade practices by China, launched an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and imposed tariffs, eventually escalating into a full-scale trade conflict. During the Biden administration, the conflict shifted from tariffs to export controls, specifically targeting the semiconductor and high-tech industries. The US′s technological sanctions have profoundly impacted China, particularly in semiconductor imports. Taiwan, as a crucial player in the global semiconductor supply chain, has also been affected.
This thesis aims to explore the impact of the US′s export restrictions on advanced process chips from TSMC to Huawei, set for September 2020, and the comprehensive export control policies implemented in October 2022 on Taiwan′s semiconductor exports to China, as well as the changes in China′s semiconductor import structure. The research indicates that the US-China trade war and technological sanctions significantly affect bilateral trade and other countries through the global value chain. Taiwan and South Korea, as major semiconductor exporters to China, also reflect the spillover effects of US-China trade policies in their trade dynamics.
Since 2014, Taiwan has been China′s largest semiconductor import source, with its import share gradually increasing during the US-China trade war. Data shows that Taiwan′s semiconductor export value continued to grow after the first quarter of 2019 but started to decline from the fourth quarter of 2022, possibly related to the US′s extensive export controls on Chinese enterprises. Moreover, the US′s export control policies have highlighted the risk of decoupling in the global semiconductor supply chain, prompting countries to reassess their supply chain strategies.
This thesis analyzes data from Taiwan′s Ministry of Economic Affairs and the United Nations Comtrade Database. The results indicate that the US′s export control policies have significantly impacted Taiwan′s semiconductor exports and China′s import structure, reflecting changes in policy interactions and dependencies within the global economic environment. These findings help understand the specific effects of the US-China tech war on Taiwan-China trade and provide a basis for future policy-making. |
