| 摘要: | 2050 年實現淨零碳排成為全球共識，世界各國陸續推動能源轉型以達成此目標。本研究以德法兩國為例，運用比較分析法探討兩國在能源轉型政策上的差異對電力價格、電力淨出口及碳排放量的影響以作為台灣能源轉型政策的參考。研究結果顯示在電力價格方面，德國透過徵收再生能源附加費籌措建設再生能源之資金，導致住宅和工業電價漲幅均高於法國。電力淨出口方面，法國的電力淨出口值相對穩定，德國則是從 2017 年開始逐年下降且到 2023 年轉成淨進口國家，而主要原因是德國採取非核家園政策且從國外進口電力較具經濟效益。碳排放量方面，由於核能政策及火力發電占比之差異，導致德國電力排碳係數是法國的 6 倍左右。能源轉型現況顯示，德法兩國除了有完善的目標體系、監測機制及輔以先進的模型評估方法，有效推進了能源轉型，而台灣在建立全面監測平台和量化評估工具方面仍有不足。德國再生能源占比進度雖符合目標，如去除發電及用電之因素，將與原先進度差距20%左右。
本研究建議台灣參照德法經驗，建立完善的能源轉型模型，定期檢視目標進度做必要的修改。而由德國的經驗來看，廢核導致電價上漲和發電量減少，考慮台灣獨立電網特性，建議審慎評估效仿德國模式的經濟影響，且法國電力排碳係數顯著低於德國。綜上所述，建議台灣的能源政策可能更適合參考法國模式，在維持核電基礎上發展再生能源，以平衡環境目標、經濟發展和能源安全。;Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 has become a global consensus, and countries around the world are gradually conducting energy transitions to reach this goal. This study uses Germany and France as examples, employing a comparative analysis to explore how differences in their energy transition policies impact electricity prices, net electricity exports, and carbon emissions, with the aim of providing insights for Taiwan′s energy transition policies. The results show that in terms of electricity prices, Germany′s imposition of a renewable energy surcharge to fund renewable energy infrastructure has led to higher increases in both residential and industrial electricity prices compared to France. Regarding net electricity exports, France′s net electricity exports have remained relatively stable, while Germany′s have been declining since 2017, turning the country into a net importer by 2023. This shift is primarily due to Germany′s anti-nuclear policy and the economic advantages of importing electricity from abroad. In terms of carbon emissions, due to differences in nuclear policies and the share of thermal power generation, Germany′s carbon emission factor for electricity is about six times higher than that of France. The current state of energy transition shows that both Germany and France have well-established goal systems, monitoring mechanisms, and advanced model assessment methods that have effectively advanced their energy transitions. In contrast, Taiwan still lacks comprehensive monitoring platforms and quantitative assessment tools. Although Germany′s progress in renewable energy is on track with its targets, if factors related to electricity generation and consumption are excluded, the progress would fall short by approximately 20%. This study suggests that Taiwan should refer to the experiences of Germany and France to establish a robust energy transition model, regularly reviewing progress and making necessary adjustments. Based on Germany′s experience, the phase-out of nuclear power has led to increased electricity prices and reduced power generation. Given Taiwan′s isolated grid system, it is recommended to carefully evaluate the economic impacts of adopting a similar model. Additionally, France′s carbon emission factor for electricity is significantly lower than Germany′s. In summary, it is suggested that Taiwan′s energy policy may be better suited to following the French model, maintaining a nuclear power foundation while developing renewable energy to balance environmental goals, economic development, and energy security. |
