台灣與鄰近海域七十公里深最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響

NCUIR > Engineering College > Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/96078

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/96078

Title:	台灣與鄰近海域七十公里深最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響
Authors:	蕭明淳;Hsiao, Ming-Chun
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉
Date:	2025-01-20
Issue Date:	2025-04-09 15:56:04 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本論文研究台灣和鄰近區域的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，地震事件深度皆在 70 公里之內。我們分析最強地震圓弧雙交叉的各種幾何特性，包括:半徑比，端弧比，兩端分岔對稱比，南、北端分岔比，弧周比和主軸角度。我們發現這些幾何特性有助於我們找出能預測短天期強震的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，並使得120天內規模5.7以上強震的預測命中率接近8成左右，90天內預測命中率接近7成，70天內預測命中率接近6成。;This thesis studies the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in Taiwan and adjacent areas.The depths of the seismic events considered by us are within 70 kilometers.We analyze various geometric features of the strongest double intersections, including: ratio of radii, ratio of end arcs, branching ratio of the ends, northern/southern branching ratio, ratio of arc and circumference and the angle of the major axis.We find that these geometric features can be useful for us to identify those strongest double intersections that can be applied to predicted short term strong earthquakes.And the hit rate of the prediction of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes over 5.7 occurred within 120 days can be close to 80%, the hit rate of the prediction within 90 days is close to 70%, and the hit rate of the prediction within 70 days is close to 60%.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	36	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...