總浮時管理（Total Float Management, TFM）是一種延遲分析方法，與其他延遲分析方法相比，提供了較為完善的功能。鑒於時間是確保工程專案順利達成目標的關鍵因素之一，而TFM方法在營建產業中的應用已日益普及，對於解決時程延遲分析提供普遍可以被爭議方接受的分析結果。然而，實務上該方法通常僅用於延遲已發生或正在發生的情況，尚無其在延遲發生前的預測分析中應用的明確證據。此外，手動執行TFM也需耗費大量時間，與延遲分析應儘速完成的實務需求存在落差。本研究結合了 EDM(t)+（時間型實獲工期管理）方法與TFM的基本概念，提出一種新的方法，稱為預測性延遲浮時分析（Forecasted Delay Float Analysis, FDFA）。此方法自預測潛在延遲著手，進一步分析延遲對專案時程所造成的影響。同時，本研究亦開發了一套自動化程式，以有效執行 FDFA 方法的計算。該程式所產生的結果已透過人工計算與既有公式進行驗證，證實其正確性。FDFA 方法的產出包含各作業項目的預測延遲及其延遲持續時間，並呈現此等延遲對整體專案時程造成的影響。研究結果顯示，FDFA 方法在效能上優於作為其基礎的兩種分析方法。本研究亦指出本研究之限制，特別是在取得真實工程案例以及預測可能導致延遲的責任歸屬方面。因此，建議後續研究能以更多實務專案為基礎進行驗證，以提升 FDFA 方法的可靠性。;Total Float Management (TFM) is a delay analysis method that offers the better functions compared to other delay analysis methods. TFM provides acceptable analysis outcomes of schedule delay analysis for the parties to dispute. The application of TFM method in the construction industry has become widespread, considering that time is one of the critical factors in ensuring the success of a construction project in achieving its objectives. However, in practice, this method is commonly applied when the delay is already occurring or has occurred, with no recorded evidence of its use for pre-delay analysis. Moreover, conducting TFM manually also requires a considerable amount of time, while delay analysis is expected to be completed as quickly as possible. This study adopts the fundamental concepts of both the EDM(t)+ method and TFM to develop a new approach called FDFA (Forecasted Delay Float Analysis), where the calculation process begins with forecasting potential delays, followed by analyzing the impact of those delays on the project schedule. An automation process was also developed to perform the FDFA calculations efficiently. The accuracy of the results generated by this automation process was verified by performing manual calculations based on the available formulas. The output produced by the FDFA method consists of the forecasted delay of project activities along with their respective durations, as well as the delay impact resulting from those forecasts on the project schedule. The results demonstrated that the FDFA method successfully outperforms both previous methods, which were used as the foundation for developing this new approach. This research acknowledges certain limitations, particularly in obtaining real-world project case studies and in predicting which party would be responsible for the potential delays. Therefore, it is recommended that future studies conduct validation using a broader range of practical projects to ensure the reliability of the FDFA method.
