Analyzing the Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on the PFDHA Results of the Reverse Fault and Strike-Slip Fault – Case Studies in Central Taiwan

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题名:	Analyzing the Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on the PFDHA Results of the Reverse Fault and Strike-Slip Fault – Case Studies in Central Taiwan
作者:	胡立;Hussain, Liaqat
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	機率式斷層位移危害度分析;參數不確定性;地震規模;斷層位移推估誤差;沿主斷層之位置效應;逆斷層和平移斷層;PFDHA;Parameter uncertainty;Standard deviation;Displacement error estimation;Reverse & strike-slip fault;Seismic hazard assessment
日期:	2025-07-25
上传时间:	2025-10-17 11:05:53 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	機率式斷層位移危害度分析（Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis，簡稱 PFDHA）是一種常用於預測斷層位移風險的方法，特別適用於可能影響基礎設施(如管線、道路、隧道與橋樑等)的地震位移危害風險評估。在過去二十年間，許多研究已將 PFDHA 應用於不同類型的斷層，包括正斷層、平移斷層與逆斷層，並將各類斷層的分析方法(但其各自適用的經驗公式並不相同)整合成一個通用的分析架構。然而，PFDHA 中參數不確定性對於結果的影響尚未被充分探討，導致斷層位移預測與危害評估中存在未知的不確定性。本研究旨在填補此一缺口，探討地震規模及其標準差、沿主斷層不同位置，以及斷層位移估計誤差對 PFDHA 結果的影響。本研究以台灣的車籠埔斷層、三義斷層及屯子腳斷層作為案例斷層，並以斷層位移危害度曲線（PFDHA 曲線）呈現不同參數之分析結果，說明各項斷層參數的變異性如何影響不同斷層位移的超越機率。研究結果指出，對於車籠埔與三義斷層(逆斷層)以及屯子腳斷層(平移斷層)而言，地震規模是最顯著影響 PFDHA 結果的參數，而在本研究中，地震規模的變異性對逆斷層的影響較小。沿主斷層不同位置之位移反應而言，斷層中段對應的位移與超越機率通常是最危險的。考慮位移估計誤差時，此誤差對平移斷層可能造成顯著的影響，但對逆斷層的影響則較為輕微。這些結果強調了未來 PFDHA 研究中加強不確定性量化的重要性，顯示參數變異性對危害評估具有顯著影響。本研究有助於提升地震危害預測模型，並為地震活躍區域中管線基礎設施與建築結構等的韌性設計提供寶貴資訊。關鍵字: 機率式斷層位移危害度分析(PFDHA)，參數不確定性，地震規模，斷層位移推估誤差，沿主斷層之位置效應，逆斷層，平移斷層 ;Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA) is a popular method for predicting fault displacement risks, particularly for seismic risk assessments of infrastructure. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have applied PFDHA to different fault types, including normal, strike-slip, and reverse faults, and the analysis methods for different types of faults are combined into a generalized framework. Although, the role of parameter uncertainty in PFDHA has not been thoroughly explored, resulting in a significant gap in the prediction of fault displacement and hazard assessment. This research seeks to fill that gap by investigating the effects of earthquake magnitude standard deviation and the estimation of fault displacement errors on the outcomes of PFDHA. The Chelungpu, Sanyi Faults and Tunzijiao Fault in Taiwan are used as test cases, and results are presented in the form of hazard curves (PFDHA curves) to illustrate how variations in key fault parameters affect the probability of fault displacement. According to the analysis results, for Chelungpu, and Sanyi Faults (as reverse faults) and Tunzijiao Fault (as strike slip fault), the earthquake magnitude is the most significant parameters to influence the PFDHA results, while the variation of magnitude has minimal effect on the reverse faults in this study. As for the location effect, the displacement and the corresponding probability are always the most hazardous in the center part of the fault. When considering the displacement error estimation, it was found that it can cause significant variations for strike-slip fault, while the error estimation only has minor effects for reverse faults. These results emphasize the significance of enhanced uncertainty quantification in future PFDHA studies, demonstrating the substantial influence of parameter variability on hazard assessment. This research contributes to the improvement of seismic hazard prediction models and offers valuable information regarding the resilience of pipeline infrastructure and building construction in seismically active regions. Key words: PFDHA, Parameter uncertainty, Standard deviation, Displacement error estimation, Reverse & strike-slip Fault, Seismic hazard assessment.
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