以系統動力模式分析氣候變遷下灌溉行為 對地下水資源的長期影響

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Title:	以系統動力模式分析氣候變遷下灌溉行為對地下水資源的長期影響
Authors:	鄧皓謙;Deng, Hao-Chien
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	地下水;氣候變遷;農業灌溉;Groundwater;Climate Change;Agricultural Irrigation
Date:	2025-07-28
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 11:07:08 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究針對高雄旗山及美濃地區，評估氣候變遷與農業灌溉對地下水資源之影響。首先蒐集歷史地下水位與氣象資料，建立模擬模型並進行校準與驗證，結果顯示模擬值與觀測值具有良好一致性，可作為未來推估之基礎。在未來氣候模擬部分，採用臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台（TCCIP）提供之未來資料，選用 TaiESM1、EC-Earth3、EC-Earth3-Veg 及 NorESM2-LM 等四個 AR6 全球氣候模式，搭配 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 與 SSP5-8.5 等四種社會經濟情境，模擬未來地下水位變化。模擬結果顯示，在各情境下地下水位多呈下降趨勢，且不同模式與情境間結果差異顯著，顯示推估具不確定性。為評估農業灌溉行為對地下水的影響，進一步模擬不同灌溉策略，包括有灌溉、無灌溉及將高需水作物改種植節水作物等情境。模擬結果顯示，取消灌溉可明顯促使地下水位回升；而種植節水作物雖有助於減緩地下水位下降趨勢，但其正向效益相較於未來氣候變遷所可能帶來的負面影響仍顯有限。由此可見，在面對強烈氣候變遷壓力時，如何強化地下水資源的管理與調配，將是未來水資源永續發展的重要課題。本研究成果可作為旗山與美濃地區農業灌溉調適與地下水管理之參考，亦可提供政府在制定水資源政策與應對氣候變遷策略時之重要依據。 ;This study investigates the impacts of climate change and agricultural irrigation on groundwater resources in the Cishan and Meinong areas of Kaohsiung. Historical groundwater level and meteorological data were collected to develop a simulation model, which was calibrated and validated with observed data. The results showed good agreement, indicating the model’s reliability for future projections. Future climate projections were based on data from the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP), using four CMIP6 global climate models—TaiESM1, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, and NorESM2-LM—under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Simulations revealed a general declining trend in groundwater levels across all scenarios, with significant differences among models and pathways, indicating considerable projection uncertainty. To further assess the effects of irrigation practices, three scenarios were simulated: full irrigation, no irrigation, and switching to water-saving crops. Results showed that eliminating irrigation significantly improved groundwater levels. While switching to water-saving crops helped slow groundwater depletion, the positive impact remained limited compared to the potential negative effects of future climate change. These findings highlight the need for enhanced groundwater management under climate pressure. The results can serve as a reference for irrigation adaptation and groundwater policy in southern Taiwan, supporting long-term sustainable water resource planning.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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